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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Feb 14, 2019 16:39:55 GMT -8
Ray also supported the construction of a marine science center in Newport, right in a tsunami zone. That came despite a warning from an OSU geologist of the obvious to everyone else hazard. Ray needs to be fired. He is not intelligent enough to be given the presidency of OSU, let alone run a hot dog cart. Um, this is probably a poor example. linkAny tsunami big enough to overwhelm that complex would probably be devastating enough that there'd be no safe place to build on most of Oregon's coastline. I'm assuming the relative width of the bayfront might eat up a lot of water and keep that facility relatively safe from anything but apocalyptic type tsunamis. I was living in Kona when the "big" earthquake hit about 12 years back. Most of the coast saw a 3-6 foot tide change, the bay below my place had a corner that had an 18-25 foot surge that took out several homes. Maui County has a situation where waves can essentially pinball in the basin between islands and reach tremendous heights, supposedly they've found evidence of historical tsunami at like 1200-1500 in elevation on Lanai.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Feb 14, 2019 16:41:34 GMT -8
I hate to say it, but I’d probably eat at Mod Pizza 3-4 days a week if I was within 2 miles of one, and it just might end up being little more expensive than cooking for myself (I’ve kinda gotten into prime rib lately, and I have a bit of an issue with portion control at times). I'd go without pizza rather than eat the cardboard crap they produce at Mod Pizza..... Have you eaten at Mod? Granted, they don't have a thick crust, gotta go to Pieology for that.
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Post by nexus73 on Feb 14, 2019 18:51:58 GMT -8
Ray also supported the construction of a marine science center in Newport, right in a tsunami zone. That came despite a warning from an OSU geologist of the obvious to everyone else hazard. Ray needs to be fired. He is not intelligent enough to be given the presidency of OSU, let alone run a hot dog cart. Um, this is probably a poor example. linkI believe it to be the perfect example of incompetence at the highest levels of OSU. If you want to defend the indefensible, by all means, have at it...LOL!
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Post by nexus73 on Feb 14, 2019 18:54:05 GMT -8
Um, this is probably a poor example. linkAny tsunami big enough to overwhelm that complex would probably be devastating enough that there'd be no safe place to build on most of Oregon's coastline. I'm assuming the relative width of the bayfront might eat up a lot of water and keep that facility relatively safe from anything but apocalyptic type tsunamis. I was living in Kona when the "big" earthquake hit about 12 years back. Most of the coast saw a 3-6 foot tide change, the bay below my place had a corner that had an 18-25 foot surge that took out several homes. Maui County has a situation where waves can essentially pinball in the basin between islands and reach tremendous heights, supposedly they've found evidence of historical tsunami at like 1200-1500 in elevation on Lanai. The minimum projection for a Cascadia Subduction tsunami is 80 feet. You can kiss most of the coastal communities goodbye.
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Post by mbabeav on Feb 14, 2019 19:19:17 GMT -8
Any tsunami big enough to overwhelm that complex would probably be devastating enough that there'd be no safe place to build on most of Oregon's coastline. I'm assuming the relative width of the bayfront might eat up a lot of water and keep that facility relatively safe from anything but apocalyptic type tsunamis. I was living in Kona when the "big" earthquake hit about 12 years back. Most of the coast saw a 3-6 foot tide change, the bay below my place had a corner that had an 18-25 foot surge that took out several homes. Maui County has a situation where waves can essentially pinball in the basin between islands and reach tremendous heights, supposedly they've found evidence of historical tsunami at like 1200-1500 in elevation on Lanai. The minimum projection for a Cascadia Subduction tsunami is 80 feet. You can kiss most of the coastal communities goodbye.
Here is a study done by NOAA for Newport based on modeling done following the 2004 Sumatra quake: "An optimized tsunami forecast model was developed for Newport, Oregon. The computational grids were derived from the best available bathymetric and topographic source data available. Eleven historical events were simulated and the forecast model was compared to the reference model to validate the forecast model. The stability and sensitivity of the model were tested with 16 Mw 9.3 synthetic tsunami scenarios originating around the Pacific Ocean Basin and along the South American coast. The forecast model remained stable during the synthetic testing. Scenarios run using Alaska-Cascadia and KurilKamchatka sources would result in waves as high as 7 m."
That is about 24 feet, and the Marine Science Center has evacuate to rooftop plans, and is designed both to survive the 9+ magnitude expected quake, and the top of the building is supposed to be above that level. The inlet to the bay is protected by the jetties and so water that might funnel into the bay is mostly diverted, so the projections are that the building's rooftop is a safe zone in the event of all but a quake above 9.3 magnitude as used in modeling the risks, which is unlikely. Also note that once you get away from the bay front, most of Newport is on bluffs well above the 24' level, there are very few Tsunami evacuation signs like those you see on 101 going north into Lincoln City, Tillamook and Seaside. South of Newport most of the communities are situated above the 7 meter mark. The proviso must be made for the geology just off the coast line at each point - it gets deep fast right off of Newport, which will make for smaller waves than areas were there is a shallow shelf sticking out so the water has a chance to pile up. Topography often has as close to as much influence as does the size of the earthquake.
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Post by Judge Smails on Feb 14, 2019 19:51:13 GMT -8
Looks like we need an earthquake/pizza board.
Good grief.
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Post by nexus73 on Feb 14, 2019 20:06:39 GMT -8
The minimum projection for a Cascadia Subduction tsunami is 80 feet. You can kiss most of the coastal communities goodbye.
Here is a study done by NOAA for Newport based on modeling done following the 2004 Sumatra quake: "An optimized tsunami forecast model was developed for Newport, Oregon. The computational grids were derived from the best available bathymetric and topographic source data available. Eleven historical events were simulated and the forecast model was compared to the reference model to validate the forecast model. The stability and sensitivity of the model were tested with 16 Mw 9.3 synthetic tsunami scenarios originating around the Pacific Ocean Basin and along the South American coast. The forecast model remained stable during the synthetic testing. Scenarios run using Alaska-Cascadia and KurilKamchatka sources would result in waves as high as 7 m."
That is about 24 feet, and the Marine Science Center has evacuate to rooftop plans, and is designed both to survive the 9+ magnitude expected quake, and the top of the building is supposed to be above that level. The inlet to the bay is protected by the jetties and so water that might funnel into the bay is mostly diverted, so the projections are that the building's rooftop is a safe zone in the event of all but a quake above 9.3 magnitude as used in modeling the risks, which is unlikely. Also note that once you get away from the bay front, most of Newport is on bluffs well above the 24' level, there are very few Tsunami evacuation signs like those you see on 101 going north into Lincoln City, Tillamook and Seaside. South of Newport most of the communities are situated above the 7 meter mark. The proviso must be made for the geology just off the coast line at each point - it gets deep fast right off of Newport, which will make for smaller waves than areas were there is a shallow shelf sticking out so the water has a chance to pile up. Topography often has as close to as much influence as does the size of the earthquake. You are playing a game of You Bet Your Life when you live on the coast like me. Here is DOGAMI's projection of what happens here in Coos Bay-North Bend when an 80 foot tsunami comes calling:
www.oregongeology.org/pubs/tim/Coos05_CoosBayNorthBend_Plate1_onscreen.pdf
Perhaps the tsunami rises to 100 feet as some geologists think. I am perfectly situated to watch the water wash around me. Those who are not can kiss their lives goodbye.
So go ahead and place your bet on a 24 foot tsunami. Should you lose the bet and I win, I'll laugh at your drowned self while I'll be up here on a hill huddling while awaiting rescue. Thanks to me being set up as an amateur radio operator (Amateur Extra) with solar powered radio equipment and the needed antennas, I will be able to call in for an airdrop, so relief will eventually come my way.
Ed Ray is an idiot and needs to be removed. PERIOD.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Feb 14, 2019 20:55:44 GMT -8
Well that idiot has overseen a period of near-unprecedented growth, fund-raising, academic and capital improvements in the university's history.
And perhaps the scientists who study these things have discerned a difference in how a tsunami may impact Coos Bay-North Bend and Newport, which are more than 100 miles apart.
Maybe, maybe not.
A lot of smart people make very stupid mistakes, even when presented with ample evidence to the contrary. That's why there are 58,000 names on the Bob McNamara/MacGeorge Bundy/Dean Rusk/Bill Bundy/Maxwell Taylor/JFK/LBJ Wall in Washington, D.C.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Feb 14, 2019 21:06:05 GMT -8
Here is a study done by NOAA for Newport based on modeling done following the 2004 Sumatra quake: "An optimized tsunami forecast model was developed for Newport, Oregon. The computational grids were derived from the best available bathymetric and topographic source data available. Eleven historical events were simulated and the forecast model was compared to the reference model to validate the forecast model. The stability and sensitivity of the model were tested with 16 Mw 9.3 synthetic tsunami scenarios originating around the Pacific Ocean Basin and along the South American coast. The forecast model remained stable during the synthetic testing. Scenarios run using Alaska-Cascadia and KurilKamchatka sources would result in waves as high as 7 m."
That is about 24 feet, and the Marine Science Center has evacuate to rooftop plans, and is designed both to survive the 9+ magnitude expected quake, and the top of the building is supposed to be above that level. The inlet to the bay is protected by the jetties and so water that might funnel into the bay is mostly diverted, so the projections are that the building's rooftop is a safe zone in the event of all but a quake above 9.3 magnitude as used in modeling the risks, which is unlikely. Also note that once you get away from the bay front, most of Newport is on bluffs well above the 24' level, there are very few Tsunami evacuation signs like those you see on 101 going north into Lincoln City, Tillamook and Seaside. South of Newport most of the communities are situated above the 7 meter mark. The proviso must be made for the geology just off the coast line at each point - it gets deep fast right off of Newport, which will make for smaller waves than areas were there is a shallow shelf sticking out so the water has a chance to pile up. Topography often has as close to as much influence as does the size of the earthquake. You are playing a game of You Bet Your Life when you live on the coast like me. Here is DOGAMI's projection of what happens here in Coos Bay-North Bend when an 80 foot tsunami comes calling:
www.oregongeology.org/pubs/tim/Coos05_CoosBayNorthBend_Plate1_onscreen.pdf
Perhaps the tsunami rises to 100 feet as some geologists think. I am perfectly situated to watch the water wash around me. Those who are not can kiss their lives goodbye.
So go ahead and place your bet on a 24 foot tsunami. Should you lose the bet and I win, I'll laugh at your drowned self while I'll be up here on a hill huddling while awaiting rescue. Thanks to me being set up as an amateur radio operator (Amateur Extra) with solar powered radio equipment and the needed antennas, I will be able to call in for an airdrop, so relief will eventually come my way.
Ed Ray is an idiot and needs to be removed. PERIOD.
First of all, that's Coos Bay/North bend. It would be real interesting to see the projections around the Newport area. Every shoreline is different. When the big Indonesia earthquake hit back in 2005 or so and killed 100's of thousands across 2-3 oceans and seas, while Diego Garcia got hit with 12-24 inch tidal changes, certain countries to the west of it were nailed bigtime by the same wavefront. Underwater topography, and above sea level topography, can play a big part in how much tsunami damage occurs.
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Post by nexus73 on Feb 14, 2019 21:25:08 GMT -8
You are playing a game of You Bet Your Life when you live on the coast like me. Here is DOGAMI's projection of what happens here in Coos Bay-North Bend when an 80 foot tsunami comes calling:
www.oregongeology.org/pubs/tim/Coos05_CoosBayNorthBend_Plate1_onscreen.pdf
Perhaps the tsunami rises to 100 feet as some geologists think. I am perfectly situated to watch the water wash around me. Those who are not can kiss their lives goodbye.
So go ahead and place your bet on a 24 foot tsunami. Should you lose the bet and I win, I'll laugh at your drowned self while I'll be up here on a hill huddling while awaiting rescue. Thanks to me being set up as an amateur radio operator (Amateur Extra) with solar powered radio equipment and the needed antennas, I will be able to call in for an airdrop, so relief will eventually come my way.
Ed Ray is an idiot and needs to be removed. PERIOD.
First of all, that's Coos Bay/North bend. It would be real interesting to see the projections around the Newport area. Every shoreline is different. When the big Indonesia earthquake hit back in 2005 or so and killed 100's of thousands across 2-3 oceans and seas, while Diego Garcia got hit with 12-24 inch tidal changes, certain countries to the west of it were nailed bigtime by the same wavefront. Underwater topography, and above sea level topography, can play a big part in how much tsunami damage occurs. Go look at the DOGAMI map for Newport or any other place along the coast to get their estimate. Heck, just look at how close Newport is to the Pacific and how little it is above sea level. Like I said, this is a game of You Bet Your Life for us on the coast. Would you rather prepare for the worst and get the best instead of preparing for the best case scenario and getting the worst?
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Post by nexus73 on Feb 14, 2019 21:27:27 GMT -8
Well that idiot has overseen a period of near-unprecedented growth, fund-raising, academic and capital improvements in the university's history. And perhaps the scientists who study these things have discerned a difference in how a tsunami may impact Coos Bay-North Bend and Newport, which are more than 100 miles apart. Maybe, maybe not. A lot of smart people make very stupid mistakes, even when presented with ample evidence to the contrary. That's why there are 58,000 names on the Bob McNamara/MacGeorge Bundy/Dean Rusk/Bill Bundy/Maxwell Taylor/JFK/LBJ Wall in Washington, D.C. When supposedly smart people blunder as badly as the examples you mentioned, that is the perfect illustration of their not being that smart. Ed Ray falls into that category and needs to go.
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Post by TheGlove on Feb 14, 2019 21:56:06 GMT -8
Ray also supported the construction of a marine science center in Newport, right in a tsunami zone. That came despite a warning from an OSU geologist of the obvious to everyone else hazard. Ray needs to be fired. He is not intelligent enough to be given the presidency of OSU, let alone run a hot dog cart. Is there a marine area not in a tsunami zone?
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Post by sagebrush on Feb 15, 2019 4:13:18 GMT -8
Exactly, Glove.
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Post by nexus73 on Feb 15, 2019 5:09:50 GMT -8
Ray also supported the construction of a marine science center in Newport, right in a tsunami zone. That came despite a warning from an OSU geologist of the obvious to everyone else hazard. Ray needs to be fired. He is not intelligent enough to be given the presidency of OSU, let alone run a hot dog cart. Is there a marine area not in a tsunami zone? That is a silly question Glove, then again maybe you are making a joke. IDK for sure. Marine science centers can be built on the coast and be above the projected inundation level. A much better question would be "Can you build a structure that can hold up to a 9.0+ earthquake?". The shaking comes first, lasting for around 6 minutes or did you know that? Then along comes the wall of water in about 15 minutes. The aftershocks will last for 10 years. As for tsunami activity, it will take 2 days before the roiled up Pacific Ocean settles down.
Get your learn on by watching this video showing how a Cascadia Subduction Zone quake unfolds in real time.
Anyone else here want to argue? All I can say is that if you lose the game, you lose your life. Be ready to play or else!
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Post by beaverdude on Feb 15, 2019 7:27:28 GMT -8
I'd go without pizza rather than eat the cardboard crap they produce at Mod Pizza..... Have you eaten at Mod? Granted, they don't have a thick crust, gotta go to Pieology for that. Once, never again...... All crust and no toppings.
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