rafer
Sophomore
Posts: 1,563
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Post by rafer on Jun 3, 2020 8:17:11 GMT -8
Outside of NYC, NJ, IL, MA, PA and MI where has the "medical demand curve" needed true flattening?
BTW, he disagreed with your earlier assertion of easily tracing down to pinpoint provable exposure location, genius.
P.S. Flattening the curve already happened over a month ago. Wanna move the goal posts some more? Second wave! Third wave! The sky will fall if we don't stay locked-down, you just watch!
Oregon. Absolutely. if we didn't shut down, we 100% would of spilled over into the 1,000 bed temp facility we built. at OHA we were making plans to mobilize every ambulatory surgical center in the state to hold patients. First week of April was very, very close to the tipping point. We dodge a bullet big time here. Being on the downside of an epi curve does not invalidate the actions you took to get here. a slow reopening is appropriate. I am not a strong second wave believer, but it is entirely possible if some amount of caution is not used. What do you think will be the result of a few 100 thousand rioters running around and slobbering on each other?? Second wave?? OR do they burn stuff to kill the virus??
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 3, 2020 8:41:26 GMT -8
Oregon. Absolutely. if we didn't shut down, we 100% would of spilled over into the 1,000 bed temp facility we built. at OHA we were making plans to mobilize every ambulatory surgical center in the state to hold patients. First week of April was very, very close to the tipping point. We dodge a bullet big time here. Being on the downside of an epi curve does not invalidate the actions you took to get here. a slow reopening is appropriate. I am not a strong second wave believer, but it is entirely possible if some amount of caution is not used. What do you think will be the result of a few 100 thousand rioters running around and slobbering on each other?? Second wave?? OR do they burn stuff to kill the virus?? Glad I don't live in Portland is what I think. There will be a spike, nationwide due to this I am sure. it will be interesting to see how bad. What is concerning to me is not people marching in the streets. It is that we are finding out from multiple sources that rioters and looters in cities have tended to be out of state people coming in to cause problems. So you have people travelling to cause mayhem and steal crap, then going back home... as potential carriers. the nation has done all this work to contain the disease and now across the nation we have thousands of typhoid mary's running around. That is not to invalidate the protest in any way. it has it's merits. but there could be more collateral damage than broken windows and stolen shoes.
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Post by ochobeavo on Jun 3, 2020 9:29:16 GMT -8
Outside of NYC, NJ, IL, MA, PA and MI where has the "medical demand curve" needed true flattening?
BTW, he disagreed with your earlier assertion of easily tracing down to pinpoint provable exposure location, genius.
P.S. Flattening the curve already happened over a month ago. Wanna move the goal posts some more? Second wave! Third wave! The sky will fall if we don't stay locked-down, you just watch!
Oregon. Absolutely. if we didn't shut down, we 100% would of spilled over into the 1,000 bed temp facility we built. at OHA we were making plans to mobilize every ambulatory surgical center in the state to hold patients. First week of April was very, very close to the tipping point. We dodge a bullet big time here. Being on the downside of an epi curve does not invalidate the actions you took to get here. a slow reopening is appropriate. I am not a strong second wave believer, but it is entirely possible if some amount of caution is not used. I work with an Israeli company and last night on our weekly call they mentioned they are starting to see a 2nd wave of cases in schools (mainly in Jerusalem at the moment). Certainly bears watching what happens in some of these countries that are opening ahead of the US and (hopefully?) learn something from it.
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Post by spudbeaver on Jun 3, 2020 10:02:13 GMT -8
What do you think will be the result of a few 100 thousand rioters running around and slobbering on each other?? Second wave?? OR do they burn stuff to kill the virus?? Glad I don't live in Portland is what I think. There will be a spike, nationwide due to this I am sure. it will be interesting to see how bad. What is concerning to me is not people marching in the streets. It is that we are finding out from multiple sources that rioters and looters in cities have tended to be out of state people coming in to cause problems. So you have people travelling to cause mayhem and steal crap, then going back home... as potential carriers. the nation has done all this work to contain the disease and now across the nation we have thousands of typhoid mary's running around. That is not to invalidate the protest in any way. it has it's merits. but there could be more collateral damage than broken windows and stolen shoes. Many would say vandalism and looting already invalidated the protests. But is that all it was, broken windows and stolen shoes? What a relief. For a minute I thought more innocent peoples lives were ruined.
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 3, 2020 10:22:49 GMT -8
Oregon. Absolutely. if we didn't shut down, we 100% would of spilled over into the 1,000 bed temp facility we built. at OHA we were making plans to mobilize every ambulatory surgical center in the state to hold patients. First week of April was very, very close to the tipping point. We dodge a bullet big time here. Being on the downside of an epi curve does not invalidate the actions you took to get here. a slow reopening is appropriate. I am not a strong second wave believer, but it is entirely possible if some amount of caution is not used. What do you think will be the result of a few 100 thousand rioters running around and slobbering on each other?? Second wave?? OR do they burn stuff to kill the virus?? A few hundred thousand? Benny's House has done a great job of recruiting 5+ star exagerators and people who find their statistics on foreign created social media bots.
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Post by pitbeavs on Jun 3, 2020 10:32:17 GMT -8
I could run your over with my car and qualify you. That H-word is a bad word. FYI, in the construction world, from design to plans to building, they are still called handicap ramps, handicap symbols, etc. Yes, incorrectly, BTW. The ADA implementing regulation specify that the H-word is not to be used. With respect to how ramps are referred to -- access ramp is the preferred. And, no, I'm not going to look up the specific location in the CFR.
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Post by pitbeavs on Jun 3, 2020 10:34:25 GMT -8
FYI, in the construction world, from design to plans to building, they are still called handicap ramps, handicap symbols, etc. I think he was talking about the hate word Not exactly, though we activists consider the H-word equivalent to the N-word.
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Post by pitbeavs on Jun 3, 2020 10:40:57 GMT -8
What I hate are handicap parking spaces and ramps. Hell, I can climb stairs so obviously all those ramps are stupid and just some liberal ploy to annoy the good people in my country. And the spaces close to the store? Crud, I'd have a life if they weren't reserved for gimps. That's a really poor analogy in my opinion. In your attempt it is still possible to get to where you are going, it's just an inconvenience. Not so with the shutdown. Also, his point, while not presented in the best manner is worth discussing. What other outbreak has the US encountered when people who weren't sick were quarantined? Not polio, scarlet fever, measles, etc. In those cases only the sick, and the household of the sick were quarantined. Why the 180? Just an observation. The 1918-1919 H1N1 [aka Spanish Flu --- except it started in Kansas] required quarantines and societal lock downs as we have experienced. Then, as now, the lock downs were lifted prematurely and a second wave killed ten times more than the first wave. Yes, I know, we don't have a second wave -- yet.
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Post by ag87 on Jun 3, 2020 11:33:36 GMT -8
I think he was talking about the hate word Not exactly, though we activists consider the H-word equivalent to the N-word. Thank you for the heads up. In the last decade most (all?) of my consulting has been with railroads and ports. Locomotives are not accessible and the ADA isn't in the forefront. When I was doing municipal work, we always used the H-word. I see the current ADA guidelines use the term "accessible parking spaces." I also see ramps named as ADA ramps, wheelchair ramps, and handic** wheelchair ramps. I met a few times with advocates and activists in around 1991 - 1998 to make sure my clients were getting things right for all types of chairs, scooters, etc. On another subject I'm always amazed when I think back of the original name I learned for Brazil nuts.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 3, 2020 11:35:19 GMT -8
That's a really poor analogy in my opinion. In your attempt it is still possible to get to where you are going, it's just an inconvenience. Not so with the shutdown. Also, his point, while not presented in the best manner is worth discussing. What other outbreak has the US encountered when people who weren't sick were quarantined? Not polio, scarlet fever, measles, etc. In those cases only the sick, and the household of the sick were quarantined. Why the 180? Just an observation. The 1918-1919 H1N1 [aka Spanish Flu --- except it started in Kansas] required quarantines and societal lock downs as we have experienced. Then, as now, the lock downs were lifted prematurely and a second wave killed ten times more than the first wave. Yes, I know, we don't have a second wave -- yet. The Spanish Flu also experienced a significant mutation in the virus. In reality, it was two concurrent outbreaks of the flu, even of H1N1, but the viral strain of the first wave different significantly from the second wave. To make matters worse, the mutation it experienced increased the mortality rate. It became a more deadly strain. it is possibly COVID does the same thing, but for the most part the virus has remained stable and not indicated it is prone to mutation of it's protein spikes. A second wave is all but inevitable. it is how high that wave is which is in question. The more we work to control community spead, the lower any future peak will be. Because COVID is never going away. It will now be endemic to the the US. The more we keep it contained, the more the population has time to adapt... both biologically with our own immune systems, and via interventions such as treatments and vaccines.
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 3, 2020 12:09:14 GMT -8
The 1918-1919 H1N1 [aka Spanish Flu --- except it started in Kansas] required quarantines and societal lock downs as we have experienced. Then, as now, the lock downs were lifted prematurely and a second wave killed ten times more than the first wave. Yes, I know, we don't have a second wave -- yet. The Spanish Flu also experienced a significant mutation in the virus. In reality, it was two concurrent outbreaks of the flu, even of H1N1, but the viral strain of the first wave different significantly from the second wave. To make matters worse, the mutation it experienced increased the mortality rate. It became a more deadly strain. it is possibly COVID does the same thing, but for the most part the virus has remained stable and not indicated it is prone to mutation of it's protein spikes. A second wave is all but inevitable. it is how high that wave is which is in question. The more we work to control community spead, the lower any future peak will be. Because COVID is never going away. It will now be endemic to the the US. The more we keep it contained, the more the population has time to adapt... both biologically with our own immune systems, and via interventions such as treatments and vaccines. The other thing to consider is just how many casualties Covid-19 would have caused had it struck in 1918 - I'm very appreciative of the advances in medicine over the last 100 years, and the prospect of a potential vaccine by the end of this year if things work out best case.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 3, 2020 12:21:31 GMT -8
The Spanish Flu also experienced a significant mutation in the virus. In reality, it was two concurrent outbreaks of the flu, even of H1N1, but the viral strain of the first wave different significantly from the second wave. To make matters worse, the mutation it experienced increased the mortality rate. It became a more deadly strain. it is possibly COVID does the same thing, but for the most part the virus has remained stable and not indicated it is prone to mutation of it's protein spikes. A second wave is all but inevitable. it is how high that wave is which is in question. The more we work to control community spead, the lower any future peak will be. Because COVID is never going away. It will now be endemic to the the US. The more we keep it contained, the more the population has time to adapt... both biologically with our own immune systems, and via interventions such as treatments and vaccines. The other thing to consider is just how many casualties Covid-19 would have caused had it struck in 1918 - I'm very appreciative of the advances in medicine over the last 100 years, and the prospect of a potential vaccine by the end of this year if things work out best case. Without a doubt it would of been far deadlier than H1N1 in 1918. It is more deadly than typical seasonal flu (of which H1N1 is a strain the pops up frequently) today with modern medicine. Like I mentioned before, it looks more like twice to 2.5x as deadly, rather than early data indications of 10x... but still. It was bad then, it sure would of been even worse.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 3, 2020 13:16:30 GMT -8
That's a really poor analogy in my opinion. In your attempt it is still possible to get to where you are going, it's just an inconvenience. Not so with the shutdown. Also, his point, while not presented in the best manner is worth discussing. What other outbreak has the US encountered when people who weren't sick were quarantined? Not polio, scarlet fever, measles, etc. In those cases only the sick, and the household of the sick were quarantined. Why the 180? Just an observation. The 1918-1919 H1N1 [aka Spanish Flu --- except it started in Kansas] required quarantines and societal lock downs as we have experienced. Then, as now, the lock downs were lifted prematurely and a second wave killed ten times more than the first wave. Yes, I know, we don't have a second wave -- yet. The Spanish flu probably started in 1915 in North America, but it is doubtful that it started in Kansas. Link.I think that you are talking about the Winter Wave, which followed the Fall Wave. The Fall and Winter Waves appear to have been caused by a mutation (probably) in the more benign (but still very bad) Spring Wave (which lasted into Summer). Based upon a recommendation from the Surgeon General, the State of Oregon instituted a quarantine on October 11, 1918, which lasted until November 16, 1918, a day over five weeks. The Winter Wave was bad but was not as bad as the Fall Wave. There were some social distancing measures re-implemented to combat the Winter Wave but nothing as drastic as the Fall Wave. 10 times may be true somewhere, but it was definitely not true in Oregon.
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Post by spudbeaver on Jun 3, 2020 15:09:09 GMT -8
That's a really poor analogy in my opinion. In your attempt it is still possible to get to where you are going, it's just an inconvenience. Not so with the shutdown. Also, his point, while not presented in the best manner is worth discussing. What other outbreak has the US encountered when people who weren't sick were quarantined? Not polio, scarlet fever, measles, etc. In those cases only the sick, and the household of the sick were quarantined. Why the 180? Just an observation. The 1918-1919 H1N1 [aka Spanish Flu --- except it started in Kansas] required quarantines and societal lock downs as we have experienced. Then, as now, the lock downs were lifted prematurely and a second wave killed ten times more than the first wave. Yes, I know, we don't have a second wave -- yet. Fair enough. So, one?
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Post by fishwrapper on Jun 3, 2020 15:35:27 GMT -8
Hydroxychloroquine has been rejected. The data isn't there to justify further study. The data AREN'T AREN'T ARE NOT ARE NOT ARE NOT! They (the data) AREN'T! (just don't do it again.)
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