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Post by TheGlove on Jul 13, 2020 9:09:16 GMT -8
So i just cleaned up all the crap in this thread. Posts, quoted posts, that were obviously "political."
It took me about 6 minutes.
I could have banned all of you in 1-2 minutes.
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rafer
Sophomore
Posts: 1,563
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Post by rafer on Jul 13, 2020 9:28:54 GMT -8
So i just cleaned up all the crap in this thread. Posts, quoted posts, that were obviously "political." It took me about 6 minutes. I could have banned all of you in 1-2 minutes. LOLOLOLOL
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Post by mbabeav on Jul 13, 2020 9:41:23 GMT -8
My nieces the nurse and doctor thank you, Glove, for filtering - they don't want politics to get in the way of reality. As for who's numbers are accurate, they are a bit busy to try and paint a picture of what they are dealing with. When nursing and medical schools don't prepare you for this type of extended crisis, it's at least a bit out of the ordinary, don't you think?
As for risk, roughly 98% of those who died in Oregon have been older and/or sicker, and for every person who has died, there are many more with lingering side effects that will have to be dealt with - we just don't know how many for how long. That's what happens when a highly infectious disease with no natural immunity is still ramping up. It's only been 4 months since the illness was at 100's of cases nationally.
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Post by irimi on Jul 13, 2020 10:29:53 GMT -8
just to double down on your points: 1. exactly. it seems to be in peoples heads that if you don't die, you are perfectly fine. The one person I know personally who got it, with a positive test an all, was only "sick" for about 5 days, never had to go to the hospital. just felt like crap with a high fever for a week straight. But it has been close to a month now and he still can't walk to his mail box without being completely winded and having a coughing fit. dude has more or less been on asthma steroid for weeks, just to do the minimum every day. Guy is 42 years old. not like he is some 80 year nursing home patient either. He has even had a clear negative test since. More and more evidence is pointing the the serious cardiovascular issues it is causing. blood clots in particular, causing severe organ damage. and the end of the day, nobody should be rolling the dice on this one. 2. In terms of sports and school, it ain't the kids I am worried about. I am married to a teacher... 3. accidents, suicides, murders, etc ain't contagious. Not just the idea of they are unavoidable (debatable even, to some degree) it is one does not readily spread to another. 2. I have yet to see anyone get coronavirus from a child, but I do not doubt that it is possible, no matter how unlikely. Education is going to be a problem moving forward. 3. Murders and suicides are contagious. The suicide rates shoots up especially after a famous person commits suicide. It also shoots up locally, when an individual dies in a publicized suicide. Copycat suicides are a thing. Copycat murders are a thing. Murder is also contagious. Violence, whether it is against oneself or against others, is generally contagious.
Accidents generally are not contagious. In fact, the opposite tends to be true. Accidents cause greater safety measures taken by individuals and society at large. There is much that can be done to try and forestall accidents, murders, and suicides. However, I can leave it at that.
1. As for anecdotal evidence, my 45-year-old asthmatic cousin had coronavirus. He said that it was awful for eight hours and that he feels great after those eight hours ended. His younger fiance gave him crap for not kicking coronavirus earlier. She also had the disease and was sick for approximately two hours before recovering.
The two elderly priests at my Church both had coronavirus and both recovered with no lingering effects.
Coronavirus may have some terrible long-term consequences for some people, but such instances appear to me to be the exception rather than the rule.2. Children haven’t been tested nearly as much as adults, since the assumption was that the disease is less harmful to young kids. This means that there just isn’t enough data out there to reason that children don’t transmit the virus. 3. I don’t like your use of “contagious” with murders or suicides. If you stand in a room with a person who wants to kill himself, are you going to go home and kill yourself? Just think of how dangerous the court rooms must be if murder is contagious! Every judge and lawyer (especially lawyers for the defense) must be immunized or else they’d just want to kill and kill and kill some more. To try to find commonality between a highly contagious virus and murder, suicides, and accidents is demeaning to the health care professionals who are trying to save lives and prevent the spread of a global pandemic.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jul 13, 2020 11:03:59 GMT -8
2. I have yet to see anyone get coronavirus from a child, but I do not doubt that it is possible, no matter how unlikely. Education is going to be a problem moving forward. 3. Murders and suicides are contagious. The suicide rates shoots up especially after a famous person commits suicide. It also shoots up locally, when an individual dies in a publicized suicide. Copycat suicides are a thing. Copycat murders are a thing. Murder is also contagious. Violence, whether it is against oneself or against others, is generally contagious.
Accidents generally are not contagious. In fact, the opposite tends to be true. Accidents cause greater safety measures taken by individuals and society at large. There is much that can be done to try and forestall accidents, murders, and suicides. However, I can leave it at that.
1. As for anecdotal evidence, my 45-year-old asthmatic cousin had coronavirus. He said that it was awful for eight hours and that he feels great after those eight hours ended. His younger fiance gave him crap for not kicking coronavirus earlier. She also had the disease and was sick for approximately two hours before recovering.
The two elderly priests at my Church both had coronavirus and both recovered with no lingering effects.
Coronavirus may have some terrible long-term consequences for some people, but such instances appear to me to be the exception rather than the rule. Atlanta's mayor caught covid19 from her asymptomatic child Actually, everything I'm reading says she had been attending protests, meetings, work, and then attended a funeral and noticed her husband sleeping more so decided to test the family. She, her husband and one child tested postitive. She'd noticed her husband sleeping more, she had very mild symptoms, and her child was completely asymptomatic ("we had no idea we had an asymptomatic child in the house" does not mean the child gave it to the parents). In the meanwhile, while waiting the 8 days for the test results, she visited other family and now they are getting tested as well. It could very well be that she was the source of the illness in her family.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jul 13, 2020 11:21:35 GMT -8
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US? “There are two problems with this question. It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.” ~Author Unknown The post itself starts with a flawed premise of 1%. The number currently is 0.4%. Herd immunity should kick in at around 60-70%, so a true worst case death rate would be between 0.2% and 0.3%, closer to 0.3%, if we are doing worst case. Using the numbers above, the final death toll would be 918,960. The rest of the numbers are completely made up. The hospitalization rate is closer to 2.58:1 than 19:1. And the other numbers seem to be even more dubious. Where is anything to support this? "only" 918,000 deaths, thank god, we are in the clear! a crude mortality rate (CMR) is everything the name implies. Crude. "only" 918,000 deaths would be an increase in annual deaths of over 30%. adding 918,000 additional deaths spikes our death rate in the use to a degree we haven't seen since... well, the last big pandemic. 2.8 million people die in the US annually from all causes. having a singular event add an additional 1/3rd excess deaths over expected is essentially unprecedented. We literally have not had an event kill people at this scale since the spanish flu. thi s is our "100 year flood" I am perfectly fine changing 1.0% to 0.4% will die from COVID. That is still damn near 1 million people. and, based on modelling work done out of New York (see MMWR May report: www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm) we can assume at least 75% of those deaths are "excess" and above expected. a nice round 700,000 people dead from COVID that otherwise wouldn't be dead. No big deal. It is all well and good to assign a price tag to freedom I suppose. I suppose Karen don't mind it if 700,000 OTHER people die so she can get a haircut... However, it kind of sucks when it is your family, friends, loved ones or even yourself.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jul 13, 2020 11:46:02 GMT -8
My nieces the nurse and doctor thank you, Glove, for filtering - they don't want politics to get in the way of reality. As for who's numbers are accurate, they are a bit busy to try and paint a picture of what they are dealing with. When nursing and medical schools don't prepare you for this type of extended crisis, it's at least a bit out of the ordinary, don't you think? As for risk, roughly 98% of those who died in Oregon have been older and/or sicker, and for every person who has died, there are many more with lingering side effects that will have to be dealt with - we just don't know how many for how long. That's what happens when a highly infectious disease with no natural immunity is still ramping up. It's only been 4 months since the illness was at 100's of cases nationally. Part of the entitlement of average Americans, is how we take advantage of the labor of others. being reckless and landing in the hospital is taking advantage of health care workers, it is taking up a finite resource, it is potentially taking it away from another that might be more deserving even, and it puts them at risk. It isn't about your own personal safety and outcomes. it isn't your own risk of death. It is how you impact the system we exist in. It is the butterfly effects we all cause with what we do that people don't really consider. People are going to get sick. People are going to die, it is what it is. What we should never do is just throw our hands in the air and think it is either inevitable and/or no big deal. Doing so is of great disrespect to those dedicating their lives to keep ungrateful people upright and walking.
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Post by Ruh Roh Beav on Jul 13, 2020 13:45:58 GMT -8
Putting things in a little more of a perspective Pre-Covid: on average around 700 Oregonians die each week from cancer, heart disease, automobile accident etc Based on the current CDC for Oregon it forecasts a total number of Covid deaths at 471 by Nov 1 which equates to around 13 deaths per week.
So as a state, we are totally tolerant with the 700 weekly deaths but our Governor demands we curtail our lives for the 13 weekly Covid deaths. To demand counties in southeast Oregon comply with the same requirements as the rest of the state is uncalled for. So yeah let’s put this Covid in a little bit more of a perspective with what is going on. It’s a political year and a lot of what is going on is due to that unfortunately. It’s okay to protest en masse and destroy businesses but Lordy Lordy anyone else is lambasted for getting together.
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Post by spudbeaver on Jul 13, 2020 13:57:58 GMT -8
Putting things in a little more of a perspective Pre-Covid: on average around 700 Oregonians die each week from cancer, heart disease, automobile accident etc Based on the current CDC for Oregon it forecasts a total number of Covid deaths at 471 by Nov 1 which equates to around 13 deaths per week. So as a state, we are totally tolerant with the 700 weekly deaths but our Governor demands we curtail our lives for the 13 weekly Covid deaths. To demand counties in southeast Oregon comply with the same requirements as the rest of the state is uncalled for. So yeah let’s put this Covid in a little bit more of a perspective with what is going on. It’s a political year and a lot of what is going on is due to that unfortunately. It’s okay to protest en masse and destroy businesses but Lordy Lordy anyone else is lambasted for getting together. Are you rounding up, tagging and vaccinating cattle in Rome, Or? You better damn well be wearing a mask because you’re close to people! And cows!
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Post by pitbeavs on Jul 13, 2020 14:13:02 GMT -8
Putting things in a little more of a perspective Pre-Covid: on average around 700 Oregonians die each week from cancer, heart disease, automobile accident etc Based on the current CDC for Oregon it forecasts a total number of Covid deaths at 471 by Nov 1 which equates to around 13 deaths per week. So as a state, we are totally tolerant with the 700 weekly deaths but our Governor demands we curtail our lives for the 13 weekly Covid deaths. To demand counties in southeast Oregon comply with the same requirements as the rest of the state is uncalled for. So yeah let’s put this Covid in a little bit more of a perspective with what is going on. It’s a political year and a lot of what is going on is due to that unfortunately. It’s okay to protest en masse and destroy businesses but Lordy Lordy anyone else is lambasted for getting together. In LeGrande, Pendleton, and Hermiston the virus is storming. Also in Mulheur County where 60+% of new infections are in the 0-49 age group.
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Post by irimi on Jul 13, 2020 14:20:50 GMT -8
Putting things in a little more of a perspective Pre-Covid: on average around 700 Oregonians die each week from cancer, heart disease, automobile accident etc Based on the current CDC for Oregon it forecasts a total number of Covid deaths at 471 by Nov 1 which equates to around 13 deaths per week. So as a state, we are totally tolerant with the 700 weekly deaths but our Governor demands we curtail our lives for the 13 weekly Covid deaths. To demand counties in southeast Oregon comply with the same requirements as the rest of the state is uncalled for. So yeah let’s put this Covid in a little bit more of a perspective with what is going on. It’s a political year and a lot of what is going on is due to that unfortunately. It’s okay to protest en masse and destroy businesses but Lordy Lordy anyone else is lambasted for getting together. Your reasoning is flawed. The number of deaths per week are significantly lower than they would have been had we not taken the virus seriously. In other words, the 13 weekly COVID deaths certainly could be much higher. I know that the point of your comparison is to suggest that since the state doesn’t care about other leading killers of Oregonians, then why should it care about COVID, but there are two problems with that sort of thinking. The first is that the state doesn’t care about cancer, heart disease, or auto deaths. I think you would find that the state attempts to regulate carcinogens in an effort to reduce exposure to the public. Certainly, Oregonians smoke fewer cigarettes than probably 30 years ago. As for traffic deaths, I think you’ll find that ODOT actually does care and works to reduce these all the time. The second problem with your comparison is that it is unfair to equate a global pandemic to heart disease or cancer. COVID is highly contagious and jeopardizes pretty much the entire country. Heart disease is connected to your lifestyle choices and is completely avoidable if you eat right and maintain a decent exercise program. There are too many kinds of cancers and causes for each cancer to try to discuss that here, but you probably get the picture. A lot of people here and other places have complained that Portland and some itty bitty town in rural Oregon are completely different. But that’s the kind of thinking that led the US into this whole mess. “Oh, it’s a Chinese virus. Let them handle it.” “Oh, it’s just one person.” “Oh, it’s just the West Coast.” And so on.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jul 13, 2020 14:28:25 GMT -8
Putting things in a little more of a perspective Pre-Covid: on average around 700 Oregonians die each week from cancer, heart disease, automobile accident etc Based on the current CDC for Oregon it forecasts a total number of Covid deaths at 471 by Nov 1 which equates to around 13 deaths per week. So as a state, we are totally tolerant with the 700 weekly deaths but our Governor demands we curtail our lives for the 13 weekly Covid deaths. To demand counties in southeast Oregon comply with the same requirements as the rest of the state is uncalled for. So yeah let’s put this Covid in a little bit more of a perspective with what is going on. It’s a political year and a lot of what is going on is due to that unfortunately. It’s okay to protest en masse and destroy businesses but Lordy Lordy anyone else is lambasted for getting together. I hate to be the guy that points this out, but eastern Oregon counties leads the state in cases per capita... Maybe eastern Oregon should of actually given a s%#t this whole time. During this entire surge, Umatilla and Union county lead the state, more so than Multco, or Washington or Clackamas country multiple times in a per capita capacity. As a county, they have more than 1,000 cases in a county with 80,000 people living in it, owning a higher population rate than any PDX metro area, or Salem. Multiple times in the last week, Umatilla county topped Multnomah county in total case counts... period. The top 5 counties in Oregon, in cases per 10,000 are: Union, Umatilla, Malheur, Morrow, Lincoln all notably rural, and 4 of 5 east southeast Oregon. public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonCOVID-19TestingandOutcomesbyCounty/OregonsCOVID-19TestingandOutcomesbyCounty?:display_count=y&:toolbar=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:showShareOptions=false It would seem to be it is VERY appropriate that eastern Oregon needs to be held to the same standard. Because honestly the standards transcends population to common sense: stay away from other people. wear a mask. As for protests, well, if you are going to bring data to the party... you live and die on that data. Multco and Washington counties are ground zero for the protests. they have a 36.1 and 30 cases per 10,000 rate. 1/4th that of those eastern Oregon counties. It simply has NOT shown up in data that protests are a source of major spread. Likely because I think people are REALLY overestimating how many people are actually out there protesting. After the first week or so of ongoing protests I doubt the nightly count could continue to be measured in the thousands in Oregon. Despite ongoing protests for 46 some days now, we are talking about several hundred people (if that) showing up in sporadic places, here and there. It also needs to be pointed out, hospitalizations and deaths in eastern Oregon are slower to report, because the majority of eastern Oregon cases are going to hospitals in Boise.
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Post by lebaneaver on Jul 13, 2020 15:07:41 GMT -8
Leb is indeed middle of the road. I, being a Sweet Home grad, thinks that Leb, being where he is from, automatically makes him a POS, is still a good guy. When we disagree, we disagree agreeably. Decades ago, we had a sign that said to flush your toilets often because Lebanon needs the water. I still owe him a short case of beer and was looking forward to paying it off and helping him drink it. Leb, sooner or later, I will pay it off. Not this year, but, the good Lord willing, next year. BTW, if you are ever in Central Oregon, leave me a message and we will get together and I will have it for you. mrs sage still can't get out and about, but you are always welcome in my home. Yes, Sage..... I am most decidedly, middle of the road, lean left. However, a commie to today’s “right.” Things are a-skew. Also, I’m honored, and unworthy of your hospitality. My little brother lives in Bend. We get over there way too infrequently, but I’d love to buy you a beer...... when this passes.... and talk Husky, Warrior and Beaver football, and how s%#t actually flows UPHILL from Lebanon to Sugar City......😁. Take care of yourself and Mrs Sage!!!
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Post by RenoBeaver on Jul 13, 2020 15:23:45 GMT -8
1- you are only focusing on deaths. over and over again on this website alone, and pretty much every other discussion about the pandemic, people are taking into illnesses too. potentially serious illnesses with no known long term effects. 2- it's not only about the players (school aged kids) but coaches, teachers, support staff, etc. 3- no we don't shut down sports for accidents, suicides, homicides, cancer, heart disease, liver disease, diabetes, HIV, etc. For the most part those causes of death/illness not avoidable. I'm not arguing for or against shutting down sports. Just some counterpoints to consider. just to double down on your points: 1. exactly. it seems to be in peoples heads that if you don't die, you are perfectly fine. The one person I know personally who got it, with a positive test an all, was only "sick" for about 5 days, never had to go to the hospital. just felt like crap with a high fever for a week straight. But it has been close to a month now and he still can't walk to his mail box without being completely winded and having a coughing fit. dude has more or less been on asthma steroid for weeks, just to do the minimum every day. Guy is 42 years old. not like he is some 80 year nursing home patient either. He has even had a clear negative test since. More and more evidence is pointing the the serious cardiovascular issues it is causing. blood clots in particular, causing severe organ damage. and the end of the day, nobody should be rolling the dice on this one. 2. In terms of sports and school, it ain't the kids I am worried about. I am married to a teacher... 3. accidents, suicides, murders, etc ain't contagious. Not just the idea of they are unavoidable (debatable even, to some degree) it is one does not readily spread to another. Now you also know someone else who had it... virtually speaking. It wasnt fun. Took 8 days to find out my test results. A few nights I felt like my lungs were crashing. A few days I couldnt get out of bed. But I lived, as most will. But many wont, even if the death rate is only 0.5%, well you can do the math. If I'm a teacher in my 60s, guess my career is over. Same goes with thousands who work behind the scenes in the sports world. It shouldn't have ever come down to this. Just in epic failure at the national level.
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Post by vhalum92 on Jul 13, 2020 15:32:34 GMT -8
So the Football schedule is officially changing... not a huge surprise.
I certainly am happy not to be in charge of the college sports, the state or the country right about now.
Sorry to hear that you got sick Reno Beav and I do understand your future concerns.
But just to recap.... when this started our goal was to flatten the curve.
I think in Oregon and even the west coast we did that.
I also get that as a leader you make decisions to the best of your ability with the information you have at the time.... so maybe our goal should have been more lofty then flattening the curve?
I'm not clear on how Oregonians and Americans being more vigilant with the recommendations could have prevented the disease and stopped it in it's tracks... I'd like to hear more about that.
I do think concern over long term effects post infection is valid and we should start with we won't know all of them until we have had enough time to gather conclusions.
As of today Governor Brown is now requiring people to where masks when outside and closer than 6' to each other. Honest question.... does this impact allowing fans to watch sporting events outside? I'm not sure it should... and I've never been optimistic that Gov Brown was behind fans attending sporting events during the pandemic.
One last honest question... how much progress do we need to make in controlling the infection rate or deaths do we need to make before the teams can travel and play (even without fans)?
These are truly challenging times, the most challenging of my life... only 48 years so far.
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