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Post by RenoBeaver on Jul 13, 2020 17:53:14 GMT -8
So the Football schedule is officially changing... not a huge surprise. I certainly am happy not to be in charge of the college sports, the state or the country right about now. Sorry to hear that you got sick Reno Beav and I do understand your future concerns. But just to recap.... when this started our goal was to flatten the curve. I think in Oregon and even the west coast we did that. I also get that as a leader you make decisions to the best of your ability with the information you have at the time.... so maybe our goal should have been more lofty then flattening the curve? I'm not clear on how Oregonians and Americans being more vigilant with the recommendations could have prevented the disease and stopped it in it's tracks... I'd like to hear more about that. I do think concern over long term effects post infection is valid and we should start with we won't know all of them until we have had enough time to gather conclusions. As of today Governor Brown is now requiring people to where masks when outside and closer than 6' to each other. Honest question.... does this impact allowing fans to watch sporting events outside? I'm not sure it should... and I've never been optimistic that Gov Brown was behind fans attending sporting events during the pandemic. One last honest question... how much progress do we need to make in controlling the infection rate or deaths do we need to make before the teams can travel and play (even without fans)? These are truly challenging times, the most challenging of my life... only 48 years so far. I believe the goal was to flatten the curve then reopen following the guidelines outlined by the CDC. To start with, some states didnt even shut down. Once many that did reopened, many of their residents threw caution to the wind. Hell, a good portion of our population believe it's a hoax or no different than the flu. Where we are now was clear to see from the get go for me. I took 2 months off from traveling for biz and the very first time I did I saw 30 people standing around a craps table with no masks on my way to check in. Now Nevada is getting more positive tests than New York, New Jersey, and Mass, all states that were far more vigilant with their lockdown. We failed, and there is no question why we failed. At this point testing should be tenfold what it is, with near immediate results. Instead we have a POTUS that believes if we test less there would be fewer cases. That is reducing funding for testing, causing testing sites to shut down, and slowing testing results. Now we're going to force kids to go to school? What happens when a teacher finds out they have covid? Is every kid in the class going to get tested and quarantined? Are they going to find a substitute willing to go teach that class? What happens when a school has an outbreak, which will inevitably happen, and likely within the first month? Are they going to shut down the entire school? The only answer our Gov't is offering is meh...so what. No plan whatsoever, just roll em out. What happens when a teacher dies, or a janitor, or administrator, or school cook? What happens when a kid dies, because eventually that will happen too. Sporting events really seem insignificant when you start thinking all the ways things can and will go sideways. I dont know the answer. But it seems ignoring public health officials and just saying f%#*it isnt the right one.
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Post by avidbeaver on Jul 13, 2020 18:45:26 GMT -8
My nieces the nurse and doctor thank you, Glove, for filtering - they don't want politics to get in the way of reality. As for who's numbers are accurate, they are a bit busy to try and paint a picture of what they are dealing with. When nursing and medical schools don't prepare you for this type of extended crisis, it's at least a bit out of the ordinary, don't you think? As for risk, roughly 98% of those who died in Oregon have been older and/or sicker, and for every person who has died, there are many more with lingering side effects that will have to be dealt with - we just don't know how many for how long. That's what happens when a highly infectious disease with no natural immunity is still ramping up. It's only been 4 months since the illness was at 100's of cases nationally. How many cases were there before testing and tracking began in earnest? I think a lot of people already had it. Asymptomatic and those who were really sick. We may never know how many people were really infected with the virus. I am thinking people could have been infected all the way back in late December or at least the beginning of January. I know there is an antibody test but I have read or heard so many conflicting things about having antibodies. That and other back and forth on other aspects.
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Post by EmeraldEmpire on Jul 13, 2020 18:55:53 GMT -8
As of today Governor Brown is now requiring people to where masks when outside and closer than 6' to each other. Honest question.... does this impact allowing fans to watch sporting events outside? I'm not sure it should... and I've never been optimistic that Gov Brown was behind fans attending sporting events during the pandemic. The way things are going and if they even allow fans in the stands come this upcoming football season I bet they will damn sure be spacing them out ... can't imagine them allowing fans being shoulder-to-shoulder in two months time outside mask wearing or not.
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Post by orangethunder on Jul 14, 2020 4:59:09 GMT -8
Putting things in a little more of a perspective Pre-Covid: on average around 700 Oregonians die each week from cancer, heart disease, automobile accident etc Based on the current CDC for Oregon it forecasts a total number of Covid deaths at 471 by Nov 1 which equates to around 13 deaths per week. So as a state, we are totally tolerant with the 700 weekly deaths but our Governor demands we curtail our lives for the 13 weekly Covid deaths. To demand counties in southeast Oregon comply with the same requirements as the rest of the state is uncalled for. So yeah let’s put this Covid in a little bit more of a perspective with what is going on. It’s a political year and a lot of what is going on is due to that unfortunately. It’s okay to protest en masse and destroy businesses but Lordy Lordy anyone else is lambasted for getting together. I hate to be the guy that points this out, but eastern Oregon counties leads the state in cases per capita... Maybe eastern Oregon should of actually given a s%#t this whole time. During this entire surge, Umatilla and Union county lead the state, more so than Multco, or Washington or Clackamas country multiple times in a per capita capacity. As a county, they have more than 1,000 cases in a county with 80,000 people living in it, owning a higher population rate than any PDX metro area, or Salem. Multiple times in the last week, Umatilla county topped Multnomah county in total case counts... period. The top 5 counties in Oregon, in cases per 10,000 are: Union, Umatilla, Malheur, Morrow, Lincoln all notably rural, and 4 of 5 east southeast Oregon. public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonCOVID-19TestingandOutcomesbyCounty/OregonsCOVID-19TestingandOutcomesbyCounty?:display_count=y&:toolbar=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:showShareOptions=false It would seem to be it is VERY appropriate that eastern Oregon needs to be held to the same standard. Because honestly the standards transcends population to common sense: stay away from other people. wear a mask. As for protests, well, if you are going to bring data to the party... you live and die on that data. Multco and Washington counties are ground zero for the protests. they have a 36.1 and 30 cases per 10,000 rate. 1/4th that of those eastern Oregon counties. It simply has NOT shown up in data that protests are a source of major spread. Likely because I think people are REALLY overestimating how many people are actually out there protesting. After the first week or so of ongoing protests I doubt the nightly count could continue to be measured in the thousands in Oregon. Despite ongoing protests for 46 some days now, we are talking about several hundred people (if that) showing up in sporadic places, here and there. It also needs to be pointed out, hospitalizations and deaths in eastern Oregon are slower to report, because the majority of eastern Oregon cases are going to hospitals in Boise.
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Post by green85 on Jul 14, 2020 8:36:35 GMT -8
So the Football schedule is officially changing... not a huge surprise. I certainly am happy not to be in charge of the college sports, the state or the country right about now. Sorry to hear that you got sick Reno Beav and I do understand your future concerns. But just to recap.... when this started our goal was to flatten the curve. I think in Oregon and even the west coast we did that. I also get that as a leader you make decisions to the best of your ability with the information you have at the time.... so maybe our goal should have been more lofty then flattening the curve? I'm not clear on how Oregonians and Americans being more vigilant with the recommendations could have prevented the disease and stopped it in it's tracks... I'd like to hear more about that. I do think concern over long term effects post infection is valid and we should start with we won't know all of them until we have had enough time to gather conclusions. As of today Governor Brown is now requiring people to where masks when outside and closer than 6' to each other. Honest question.... does this impact allowing fans to watch sporting events outside? I'm not sure it should... and I've never been optimistic that Gov Brown was behind fans attending sporting events during the pandemic. One last honest question... how much progress do we need to make in controlling the infection rate or deaths do we need to make before the teams can travel and play (even without fans)? These are truly challenging times, the most challenging of my life... only 48 years so far. I believe the goal was to flatten the curve then reopen following the guidelines outlined by the CDC. To start with, some states didnt even shut down. Once many that did reopened, many of their residents threw caution to the wind. Hell, a good portion of our population believe it's a hoax or no different than the flu. Where we are now was clear to see from the get go for me. I took 2 months off from traveling for biz and the very first time I did I saw 30 people standing around a craps table with no masks on my way to check in. Now Nevada is getting more positive tests than New York, New Jersey, and Mass, all states that were far more vigilant with their lockdown. We failed, and there is no question why we failed. At this point testing should be tenfold what it is, with near immediate results. Instead we have a POTUS that believes if we test less there would be fewer cases. That is reducing funding for testing, causing testing sites to shut down, and slowing testing results. Now we're going to force kids to go to school? What happens when a teacher finds out they have covid? Is every kid in the class going to get tested and quarantined? Are they going to find a substitute willing to go teach that class? What happens when a school has an outbreak, which will inevitably happen, and likely within the first month? Are they going to shut down the entire school? The only answer our Gov't is offering is meh...so what. No plan whatsoever, just roll em out. What happens when a teacher dies, or a janitor, or administrator, or school cook? What happens when a kid dies, because eventually that will happen too. Sporting events really seem insignificant when you start thinking all the ways things can and will go sideways. I dont know the answer. But it seems ignoring public health officials and just saying f%#*it isnt the right one. This is a health care emergency. Looking backwards now (we did not have this, we did not do that, etc.) is not very productive right now. The most productive action would be for an honest assessment of status (e.g. testing and contract tracing) with a specific plan to implement mitigation. Risks exist moving forward, but an informed public about the risks and mitigation to control spread will actually allow group activities to eventually return. Given my personal circumstance, I won't be attending any large indoor gatherings (concerts, movies, etc.) for the 3 to 6 months. As much as I love college football, I won't attend a game in 2020. Others have to make their own choices about risk ... understanding that every person can consciously take action to reduce risk for others. We ask food service folks to wash their hands before leaving the restroom ... not sure why asking folks to wear a mask is a different preventative action.
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Post by RenoBeaver on Jul 14, 2020 10:39:46 GMT -8
I believe the goal was to flatten the curve then reopen following the guidelines outlined by the CDC. To start with, some states didnt even shut down. Once many that did reopened, many of their residents threw caution to the wind. Hell, a good portion of our population believe it's a hoax or no different than the flu. Where we are now was clear to see from the get go for me. I took 2 months off from traveling for biz and the very first time I did I saw 30 people standing around a craps table with no masks on my way to check in. Now Nevada is getting more positive tests than New York, New Jersey, and Mass, all states that were far more vigilant with their lockdown. We failed, and there is no question why we failed. At this point testing should be tenfold what it is, with near immediate results. Instead we have a POTUS that believes if we test less there would be fewer cases. That is reducing funding for testing, causing testing sites to shut down, and slowing testing results. Now we're going to force kids to go to school? What happens when a teacher finds out they have covid? Is every kid in the class going to get tested and quarantined? Are they going to find a substitute willing to go teach that class? What happens when a school has an outbreak, which will inevitably happen, and likely within the first month? Are they going to shut down the entire school? The only answer our Gov't is offering is meh...so what. No plan whatsoever, just roll em out. What happens when a teacher dies, or a janitor, or administrator, or school cook? What happens when a kid dies, because eventually that will happen too. Sporting events really seem insignificant when you start thinking all the ways things can and will go sideways. I dont know the answer. But it seems ignoring public health officials and just saying f%#*it isnt the right one. This is a health care emergency. Looking backwards now (we did not have this, we did not do that, etc.) is not very productive right now. The most productive action would be for an honest assessment of status (e.g. testing and contract tracing) with a specific plan to implement mitigation. Risks exist moving forward, but an informed public about the risks and mitigation to control spread will actually allow group activities to eventually return. Given my personal circumstance, I won't be attending any large indoor gatherings (concerts, movies, etc.) for the 3 to 6 months. As much as I love college football, I won't attend a game in 2020. Others have to make their own choices about risk ... understanding that every person can consciously take action to reduce risk for others. We ask food service folks to wash their hands before leaving the restroom ... not sure why asking folks to wear a mask is a different preventative action. Agreed. Unfortunately our own govt. is undercutting the very people responsible for setting those guidelines, and actively spreading misinformation to a base thirsty for it. I am in Las Vegas again right now. I am impressed how many people are wearing a mask and being proactive. Unfortunately too many here who dont want their freedom trampled. But it's better than my last trip.
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Post by vhalum92 on Jul 14, 2020 15:34:13 GMT -8
Thanks for the follow up Reno Beav.
My one observation is that California, did shut down early and aggressively and they seem to be right in the mix with Florida and Texas with this spike.
I completely understand your frustration with your observations and concern for your family and all involved.... I'm still trying to sift through it all to understand our best route out of this mess.
I think some school districts are still in the decision making process, I know ours/my daughters sent out a survey to parents today. I also heard that LA and San Diego school districts anounced they were starting the year with on line distance learning.
I believe all the decision makers still have alot of work to do. I'm seeing a trend related to close exposure over a longer period of time, and I think that contributes to a higher viral load as well.
But I'm no doctor and I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn last night.... just a guy hoping we find a path through this quickly.
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Post by sagebrush on Jul 14, 2020 15:48:47 GMT -8
Talk to any elementary teacher. The kids have no concept of social distance, will not wear their masks all day, and are an absolute petri dish for whatever is going around. They might not catch it, but they will take it home. mrs sage brought all kinds of sh!t home to me, OPENING SCHOOLS WILL BE A DISASTER.
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Post by irimi on Jul 14, 2020 16:23:26 GMT -8
Talk to any elementary teacher. The kids have no concept of social distance, will not wear their masks all day, and are an absolute petri dish for whatever is going around. They might not catch it, but they will take it home. mrs sage brought all kinds of sh!t home to me, OPENING SCHOOLS WILL BE A DISASTER. On my town's FB page, all the mothers are complaining because school may be open reduced days. "What am I going to do with Johnny-snotnose during the day?!"
It's a legitimate question for working parents, though I think enough are just mothers who are sick of having them around.
But school mustn't be the answer. School is one thing; daycare is another.
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Post by mbabeav on Jul 14, 2020 16:50:44 GMT -8
Talk to any elementary teacher. The kids have no concept of social distance, will not wear their masks all day, and are an absolute petri dish for whatever is going around. They might not catch it, but they will take it home. mrs sage brought all kinds of sh!t home to me, OPENING SCHOOLS WILL BE A DISASTER. On my town's FB page, all the mothers are complaining because school may be open reduced days. "What am I going to do with Johnny-snotnose during the day?!"
It's a legitimate question for working parents, though I think enough are just mothers who are sick of having them around.
But school mustn't be the answer. School is one thing; daycare is another.
Well, daycare is important, because for many working parents, daycare is needed after school - and there are so few daycare facilities left. Many parents are having to chose between working and daycare, if they can find it.
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Post by osuft3 on Jul 14, 2020 17:01:45 GMT -8
Why would day care facilities be safer than schools? Johnny Snotnose and Suzy Sneezer would still spread their germs there. However, school is already paid for and day care is not. If day care becomes the answer, some of the taxes allotted for schools should be "re-imagined" to day care.
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Post by lebaneaver on Jul 14, 2020 18:05:24 GMT -8
A lot of good, diverse discussion. Both of my sons are educators. One, taught for 13 years and has now been a principal for several years, the other in his fifth year teaching...after a hiatus. They obviously have their own takes on, "should schools open," and when/how/where? They're both smart guys. One problem I see (there are many) in the question is; are our schools STRUCTURALLY sound in a hygienic sense to assure safe re-opening. Even new, state of the art school buildings in the more affluent neighborhoods throughout the country LACK proper HVAC systems. Hell....my wife was an educator for over twenty years here in Lebanon, and I can't TELL you how many times the "heating system in the school was in disrepair," or the air was so stifling in the early fall or late spring that kids were becoming sick. Teachers, too. Infrastructure spending isn't SEXY, but it surely is important, no? Go ahead and argue about "overpaid teachers, administrators, etc. Many LOVE to blame THEM. I'm certain that it is horse s__t, but...... IF we're going to get through this crisis, morally, ethically and successfully, we need to figure it out. The cosmically idiotic governor of Florida made the statement about, "if Home Depot can open....our schools can too..." Lord God what a buffoon. Folks spend half an hour in HD. Kids and teachers spend five to seven HOURS a day in school houses. Is he that obtuse? Are there folks here who AGREE with him? Kids aren't PAWNS, and neither should educators be thought of in that regard.
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Post by spudbeaver on Jul 14, 2020 18:38:21 GMT -8
Talk to any elementary teacher. The kids have no concept of social distance, will not wear their masks all day, and are an absolute petri dish for whatever is going around. They might not catch it, but they will take it home. mrs sage brought all kinds of sh!t home to me, OPENING SCHOOLS WILL BE A DISASTER. You’ve come full circle from the guy that was going to walk up and shake my hand. Somewhere in the middle Is the right place maybe? My kids will have much more serious medical issues (mental) if they don’t get to go back full time, participate in sports, and interact with peers than they would otherwise. They don’t get it, they don’t transmit it as easy, to me it’s a no brainer. People always want us to do things like European countries, but guess not. Fire away, I don’t give a damn and my life on this board is better since I blocked some posters!
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Post by spudbeaver on Jul 14, 2020 18:44:56 GMT -8
A lot of good, diverse discussion. Both of my sons are educators. One, taught for 13 years and has now been a principal for several years, the other in his fifth year teaching...after a hiatus. They obviously have their own takes on, "should schools open," and when/how/where? They're both smart guys. One problem I see (there are many) in the question is; are our schools STRUCTURALLY sound in a hygienic sense to assure safe re-opening. Even new, state of the art school buildings in the more affluent neighborhoods throughout the country LACK proper HVAC systems. Hell....my wife was an educator for over twenty years here in Lebanon, and I can't TELL you how many times the "heating system in the school was in disrepair," or the air was so stifling in the early fall or late spring that kids were becoming sick. Teachers, too. Infrastructure spending isn't SEXY, but it surely is important, no? Go ahead and argue about "overpaid teachers, administrators, etc. Many LOVE to blame THEM. I'm certain that it is horse s__t, but...... IF we're going to get through this crisis, morally, ethically and successfully, we need to figure it out. The cosmically idiotic governor of Florida made the statement about, "if Home Depot can open....our schools can too..." Lord God what a buffoon. Folks spend half an hour in HD. Kids and teachers spend five to seven HOURS a day in school houses. Is he that obtuse? Are there folks here who AGREE with him? Kids aren't PAWNS, and neither should educators be thought of in that regard. Nice silly comparison/argument. Like only one group of people come in to HD each day. Oops! There are thousands of different folks doing that! But students only one time per day. Glitch!!
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Post by mbabeav on Jul 14, 2020 19:06:01 GMT -8
Why would day care facilities be safer than schools? Johnny Snotnose and Suzy Sneezer would still spread their germs there. However, school is already paid for and day care is not. If day care becomes the answer, some of the taxes allotted for schools should be "re-imagined" to day care. Didn't say they're safer, just a lot harder to come by these days. School is mandatory, people don't have too open daycare centers, and many are gone for good.
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