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Post by northvalleybeaver on Sept 2, 2019 13:47:45 GMT -8
My wife, daughter and I were headed for the game Friday so we stopped in Eugene so they could do some shopping. I quietly sat on a bench inside the mall relaxing when a gentleman in an Oklahoma State Shirt sat down beside me. I explained the females in my family were shopping for shoes and blouses and he chuckled because his wife and small children were looking at clothes also and they loved the no sales tax. This couple was just wonderful people. The wife explained their trip was planned for months. They had never been to the west coast before, and she went on and on how beautiful our state was and how nice the people were. The wife and kids went to get ice cream cones so I asked if they were going to the game. They were, he is some kind of computer analyst from Tulsa. We talked on several topics and it was wonderful to carry on a respectful conversation. One of his hobbies is analyzing college football programs, he has a friend who also is an analyst as well. Their specialty is analyzing college football turnarounds. He said he did not know a lot about coach Smith but what he read he liked and said if he can stick to his plan we probably got a good one. He went into quite a discussion on statistically how long turnarounds take. He covered some stuff that went right over my head and I just nodded like I under stood. He said the national average for a real turnaround was 5 to 7 years, not 2 to 4. Also talked about fickle fans everywhere and nationally fans are not patient enough. Great listening to him as at least from his point of view he had a handle on it. He mentioned it can be a long trip even for storied programs such as Penn State, Michigan, USC Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Duke and several others I can't recall. He did say the one program that is hard to explain is Tennessee. Anyway I finally asked about that night's game and once again very gracious in his comments. He apologized if he offended me it was not meant that way. He said that the Aggies had one of Gundy's best offensive lines, maybe top 2 as they were returning senior starters. He laughed and said on running plays we two could play quarterback behind that line. Also said Gundy is an offensive guru and said most people do not know that over the last 10 years the aggies are the third best offensive team over that decade. Now this is Friday afternoon mind you. He said the Okie State would put up 45 to 60 points on us, no problem. He also said that their offensive line would probably be one of the top 3 lines we will face all season. He did say that he was concerned because the defense was inexperienced but had potential to be pretty good later in the season. He felt we would put up 30 to 40 points on them. Finally his wife and kids came back and I thanked him for the conversation and hope they enjoyed every bit of their vacation. The wife said they hope to come back in 2 years. About 20 minutes later my 2 gals showed up and we left for Corvallis. Boy did he have insight into their team and I enjoyed every minute listening to his many comments. He feels we have potential to surprise some people this year.
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Post by mbabeav on Sept 2, 2019 17:45:55 GMT -8
Sounds like a dude with some football savvy to back up his analytical ability. Everyone needs a hobby....I'll stick to weather analytics, storm chasing and complainin...to stop that would make my wife suspicious.
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Post by beavoracity on Sept 2, 2019 17:47:00 GMT -8
Awesome ... thanks for sharing.
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zzufrevaeb
Sophomore
Not beaverfuzz
hi
Posts: 1,500
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Post by zzufrevaeb on Sept 2, 2019 19:05:04 GMT -8
Sounds like a guy who needed to get his lights punched out.
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Post by orangeattack on Sept 3, 2019 10:17:13 GMT -8
Sounds like a guy who needed to get his lights punched out.
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Post by beaverinohio on Sept 3, 2019 11:51:53 GMT -8
Thanks for sharing. I totally agree with the time it takes for a real turnaround and that fans are inpatient. Heck, I'd like to see a turnaround quicker but when you're talking about a total rebuild it takes time. The other team I root for is Illinois and there are quite a bit of similarities between that program and the Beavs beyond the fact that both teams have left their rebuilds in the hands of a Coach Smith. The five years prior to Lovie Smith's hiring at U of I, they had gone 24-38 with 8 conference wins and two bowl games. The five years prior to Jonathan Smith getting hired, the Beavs went 19-42 with 9 conference wins and one bowl game. Illinois just began its 4th year with Lovie at the helm and it has been ugly -- 9-37 with 4 conference wins. But he has improved the roster during his time there and bringing in more talented players. It looks like results might be on the horizon as they beat Akron, a Mid-American conference team, 42-3 on Saturday. Yes, this is a team they should handle fairly easily, but the prior two years they opened up against MAC teams and, through they won both games it was by a combined margin of 10 points. And holding a team -- any team considering how bad their defense has been -- to 3 points is cause for celebration.
The Beavs had a rough start in JS's first year and Friday's game didn't go very well. But to be honest I'm not surprised about the OK St. game. It is going to take time. And I did see a few good things in that game highlighted by the 9 tackles for losses. Sometimes it isn't easy to see progress because it doesn't initially show up in the W-L record or scores of games. And the Beavs are still at the point where the steps forward still don't seem to be out numbering the steps back. But I think JS is the right guy for the job. As for all the people calling for Tibs job already, calm down. I'm not saying he might not be eventually let go, but very rarely does switching coordinators in mid-season (or after one game) lead to better results and when it does it is with teams who are farther along than the Beavs are. Yes, he needs to be held accountable for the results as well as what led to those results, and hopefully JS will be going over tape with Tibs during the season asking why this then when schemes aren't working. I have no doubt if at the end of season JS doesn't have confidence in Tibs then he'll be let go. Same thing happened with the Illini though on the offensive side of the ball when Lovie let his first OC go after his second year. The second hire -- Rod Smith from Arizona -- has worked out very well.
I'm not feeling very hopeful about a win this week -- Arizona turned Hawaii over 6 times and still lost -- and the rest of the season could be tough on fans. Its a process and it is going to take time.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Sept 3, 2019 12:58:54 GMT -8
It could be a rough fitst two weeks.
Frankly, I would not have been surprised if we lost by 30 after looking at preseason polls. The one I looked at had the Beavers between 95th and 107th, and the Cowboys between 25th and 33rd. I was thinking we'd have little to complain about if we could keep it within 17 points.
Hawaii gives us another look at a potentially potent offense. After this weekend, I'm thinking this game could be close. I'm also thinking there's a lot better chance of winning this game, but not a lock.
I do think both of these games will be good prep for league play, I'm not sure a couple of wins over bad teams would have been.
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