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Post by 93beav on Mar 30, 2016 15:11:59 GMT -8
Personally I think it comes down to how much Ruth stays out of foul trouble. If you can anchor that middle successfully, you can alter a lot of game plans and it becomes much tougher. If she's out in the first quarter with foul trouble I'd say the odds get exponentially harder for us to win.
I don't think just looking at # of wins is necessarily an indicator of anything unless you add the context of who the wins were against. If we played Our Lady of Worthless Miracles of SW Idaho 15 times a year I think our record would look great. That said, you don't make it to the Final Four by being a cupcake. Expect the fight of our lives and probably tougher than Tennessee. I also have doubts about our ability to not be mentally overwhelmed with the moment that seems to happen most times we play Stanford.
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Post by Tigardbeav on Mar 30, 2016 16:37:45 GMT -8
I expect an unrelenting UConn full-court press from the get-go. One not broken nearly as easily as DePaul's or Baylor's. They have better athleticism at all five positions. That is what I have been surprised about. No or almost no pressure. Who have we had trouble with? UCLA & ASU. Both pressed the bejusus out of us. USC last year in the Pac 12 tournament did the same.
Give: Troy doesn't have the athletes. Probably St Bonaventure too. I was shocked that DePaul & Baylor did not use a press for at least some to large portions of the games
If I was them I would go 40 minutes of full court press
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Post by garydog on Mar 31, 2016 8:56:36 GMT -8
Feel better now that you got that out of your system? Yup. Perhaps you, too, should seek therapy. |
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Post by blueheron on Apr 2, 2016 11:25:54 GMT -8
I broke down and had to look at the stats for the year:
- Beavs and UConn have the same 3-point % (36.1% & 36.4% respectively)
- Beavs and UConn have the same rebound margin per game (11.4 & 11.3 respectively)
- Beavs give up 51.3 points per game while UConn allows 47.9 per
- Beavs allow 32.0% opponent FG% while UConn allows 33.0%
- Beavs and UConn have the same blocks per game - 6.4
- Beavs win by an average of 15.5 points while UConn beat their opponents by an average of 39.7 points
Now lets put that last stat comparison into context (Massey Ratings):
UConn won the American Athletic Conference which:
- the 5th overall ranked conference in the NCAA; 7th in Offense, 5th in Defense and 6th ranked SOS
- the conference, as a whole, went 74-63 this year
- the average ranking of UConn's conference opponents is 154; only South Florida is in the top 25 (ranked #24) &7 teams ranked 100+
- UConn's SOS is ranked 6; their best win this year was a 10 point win against ND at UConn
The Beavs won the P12 Conference which:
- the top overall ranked conference in the NCAA; #2 in Offense, #1 in Defense and #1 ranked SOS
- the conference, as a whole, went 125-29 this year
- the average ranking of the Beav's conference opponents is 43.9; with 5 teams in the top 25 and only one team ranked 100+
- Beav's SOS is ranked #2; their best win this year was against Baylor and they lost to ND by 1 at ND (with a star player out for the Beavs)
In summary, these teams are very much alike on Defense and it is difficult to tell on offense since (I contend that) UConn has yet to be tested by a quality defensive team. I believe this game will come down to defense, free throws and most likely who has the better bench... It should be a very, very entertaining game and not the 20 point blowout some people are predicting...
So when someone asks if the Beavs have a chance against UConn I would respond with a resounding 'YES'! That's some great information! Thanks for the research. I certainly don't know who is going to win this game, but Oregon State will be the biggest test of the year for UConn. All the pressure is on them, and OSU can play loose and free. If OSU can stay out of foul trouble and limit turnovers, we'll likely be in the game to the end. We've got all the tools to win this game. |
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Post by garydog on Apr 4, 2016 9:24:57 GMT -8
Predictable ending to a terrific season.
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