bmoc
Freshman
Posts: 590
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Post by bmoc on Mar 11, 2024 16:33:06 GMT -8
In case this hasn't been posted, the selection show is set for this Sunday on espn at 5pm.
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Post by rmancarl on Mar 12, 2024 10:39:18 GMT -8
In case this hasn't been posted, the selection show is set for this Sunday on espn at 5pm. Thanks, I've been too lazy to look it up. |
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Post by markarmour04 on Mar 13, 2024 8:46:21 GMT -8
So, how or why are the projected brackets so accurate? I am not suggesting that they are not accurate, I am just wondering how. Is there a pre-determined computerized formula that everyone has access to? I remember following this in the past and the bracket reveals were revelatory, filled with surprises, snubs, shocking seeding. Now we hear "looks like Portland is going to Corvallis as the 14th seed" several days before the reveal. What happened? Is Sunday just a formality that we should all just skip?
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Post by wbosh15 on Mar 13, 2024 10:15:17 GMT -8
So, how or why are the projected brackets so accurate? I am not suggesting that they are not accurate, I am just wondering how. Is there a pre-determined computerized formula that everyone has access to? I remember following this in the past and the bracket reveals were revelatory, filled with surprises, snubs, shocking seeding. Now we hear "looks like Portland is going to Corvallis as the 14th seed" several days before the reveal. What happened? Is Sunday just a formality that we should all just skip? Not at all. UP could also end up a 15 seed and sent to UCLA. And the 6/11 in our sub-regional is TOTALLY a guess. Basically it's pretty much assumed we are going to host as a 3 seed. (Most likely one of the Albany regions.). If we are a 3 seed, it would mean we would host a 14 in the first round, and the committee tries to keep things localized as much as possible. However, Eastern Washington could end up as the 14 seed and be the opponent. Or maybe E.Wash is sent to UCLA. Or Northern Arizona wins tonight. Basically there is a lot of moving parts, but knowing the bracketing principles and ability to guess general seeds we can make an educated guess. |
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Post by bennyskid on Mar 13, 2024 10:30:04 GMT -8
Once you get past the first couple seeds, they are entirely inaccurate. How could they be? Charlie Creme himself will tell you that he's only something like 80% sure that he has the 1 seeds right - Stanford, USC and Texas all have a chance. So how accurate do you think he is when it comes to the 13 seeds?
The NCAA tells us what sorts of things the committee CAN consider, but we have no idea how they will prioritize them. They WILL take into account key injuries when evaluating records, but how much? Who knows? You can't put that in a formula, can you?
Charlie Creme's job is to get clicks. Putting UP in Corvallis is a better story than putting them in Palo Alto, if what are the chances that happens? The committee works seed-by-seed, four teams at a time. Each round they pick the four best teams remaining, and only after settling on those four teams do they assign their destination. So, if UP is in that 14th group (assuming we're a 3 seed), then they are sure to put UP in Corvallis. But what are the odds that UP ends up ranked precisely in that group, i.e. #53-#56? If the committee thinks that they are #52 or #57, they aren't coming to Corvallis, period.
(And NO!!!!! They will not fudge the seeding and make UP a #14 seed just because it would be fun or popular or get ratings. That's just delusional.)
In sum, almost nothing in Creme's Bracketology will be specifically correct. That doesn't mean it isn't valuable or he isn't competent. But it's like expecting the weatherman to tell you the precise temperature it will be tomorrow at 3pm. Sure the forecast says that it will be 60 degrees, but I won't consider the weatherman wrong if it turns out to be 59 or 62.
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Post by 411500 on Mar 13, 2024 11:34:30 GMT -8
Appreciate your post bennyskid. And your last paragraph helps put things into perspective.
One thing you left out that might be helpful in explaining why Creme's Bracketology gathers so much attention: It is not because his Brackets are exactly correct, or perfectly predictive, it is because, year after year, he is better at Bracketology than anyone else.
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by greybeav on Mar 13, 2024 23:24:40 GMT -8
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Post by lotrader on Mar 14, 2024 11:40:53 GMT -8
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Post by jones on Mar 14, 2024 14:56:39 GMT -8
So, how or why are the projected brackets so accurate? I am not suggesting that they are not accurate, I am just wondering how. Is there a pre-determined computerized formula that everyone has access to? I remember following this in the past and the bracket reveals were revelatory, filled with surprises, snubs, shocking seeding. Now we hear "looks like Portland is going to Corvallis as the 14th seed" several days before the reveal. What happened? Is Sunday just a formality that we should all just skip? Just remember the brackets are predictions, much as the Beavs finishing 10th in the Pac-12 was a prediction. Shooting percentages are similar in that they only predict what could happen based on past events. Thus, when Timea makes 5 threes in a row, one should not freak when she misses the next 3. The one with the most accurate guesses (aka predictions) is the one most people will follow and for the most part it is luck. Luck is often said to be where hard work and sacrifice meet opportunity. Charlie Creme puts in the work, hence.... Seems to me the Sunday event is more or less a chance to mingle or interface with the team, et al, and share/experience the happiness when they get selected. Me, I just want them to keep playing. |
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