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Post by garydog on Oct 31, 2016 8:00:46 GMT -8
Which is it?
Against Cal, Utah and WSU, three decent P5 teams, we've jumped out to early leads, and seemed to out-coach and out-hustle tough opponents only to appear to give up and defer to their talent in the 2nd half.
How much of this is naive youth overestimating how demoralized our opponent is, and then coasting to the end; or how much is it just other teams coasting in the 1st half against the conference cellar, only to wake up and plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team?
I'm really hoping it's the latter, not the former. Because that means we have the talent and ability and coaching to play complete games in the coming years. It means we're just LEARNING to win.
If it's the latter, it means we'll probably not get the benefit of opponents looking past us in the years to come, and we'll not only lose games, but lose that first-half cushion (and consequently lose games like vs. Cal where the Bears simply ran out of time). Riley got the most out of inferior talent. I'm concerned that Riley is the only guy who could really do that in Corvallis.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 31, 2016 15:18:35 GMT -8
Which is it? Against Cal, Utah and WSU, three decent P5 teams, we've jumped out to early leads, and seemed to out-coach and out-hustle tough opponents only to appear to give up and defer to their talent in the 2nd half. How much of this is naive youth overestimating how demoralized our opponent is, and then coasting to the end; or how much is it just other teams coasting in the 1st half against the conference cellar, only to wake up and plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team? I'm really hoping it's the latter, not the former. Because that means we have the talent and ability and coaching to play complete games in the coming years. It means we're just LEARNING to win. If it's the latter, it means we'll probably not get the benefit of opponents looking past us in the years to come, and we'll not only lose games, but lose that first-half cushion (and consequently lose games like vs. Cal where the Bears simply ran out of time). Riley got the most out of inferior talent. I'm concerned that Riley is the only guy who could really do that in Corvallis. Utah was different. Utah smashed Oregon State in the mouth and Oregon State recovered but just ran out of time. Against California and Wazzu, Oregon State looked like they were coached up and motivated. The other team made halftime adjustments and it started to be much tougher sledding. If Oregon State gets better, they beat Wazzu and California is won in regulation, rather than overtime. This team is just young with a subpar offensive coaching staff. The Beavers can win games. It is just a challenge to do so at this point. Hopefully, this team wins another game, so there is something to build on for next year. |
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Post by seastape on Oct 31, 2016 20:27:37 GMT -8
Which is it? How much of this is naive youth overestimating how demoralized our opponent is, and then coasting to the end; or how much is it just other teams coasting in the 1st half against the conference cellar, only to wake up and plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team? There may be a third option: How much is it that our injury riddled-team just does not have the depth to hang with teams all four quarters? |
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Post by Tigardbeav on Oct 31, 2016 20:46:09 GMT -8
A few weeks ago (Colorado, UW) it was getting blown out in the first half. Now we are coached up to go out and win the first half. Progress kemosabe
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Post by Mike84 on Oct 31, 2016 21:01:55 GMT -8
Which is it? Against Cal, Utah and WSU, three decent P5 teams, we've jumped out to early leads, and seemed to out-coach and out-hustle tough opponents only to appear to give up and defer to their talent in the 2nd half. How much of this is naive youth overestimating how demoralized our opponent is, and then coasting to the end; or how much is it just other teams coasting in the 1st half against the conference cellar, only to wake up and plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team? I've asked myself a similar question but I think the data proves that it probably isn't the latter (or at least not entirely)... If Cal just needed to wake up at halftime and expose us with their superior talent, why did they "let" us extend the lead in the 3rd quarter? Remember, that was only a 7-point game at halftime. OSU extended the lead to 17 in the third quarter. I would say OSU was not "exposed" in the 2nd half of that game. Utah was up 12-0 at halftime. As usual, the team that is behind is the one that makes adjustments -- OSU in this case. OSU outscored Utah 7-0 in the third quarter. Utah, if they were so superior, would not have left it a 5-point lead and given OSU a chance to win at the end. The WSU game is most like what you describe and there is little doubt in my mind that WSU players and coaches changed attitude and plans at halftime. There is also little doubt that a WSU team that came in 4-0 in conference, tied for the lead in the North, 14-point favorites, and in the 5th year of their current coach, probably is a significantly superior team to the current OSU Beaver team. The one argument I have against the idea that WSU then just "plowed to an easy victory" is that they didn't. I'm sure they didn't want to have just a 4-point lead at the end with the Beavers having a chance to win on one play. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Oct 31, 2016 21:43:20 GMT -8
A few weeks ago (Colorado, UW) it was getting blown out in the first half. Now we are coached up to go out and win the first half. Progress kemosabe Ahhhh those two teams have 1st class defenses... WSU not... Cal not even close. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Oct 31, 2016 21:49:18 GMT -8
Which is it? Against Cal, Utah and WSU, three decent P5 teams, we've jumped out to early leads, and seemed to out-coach and out-hustle tough opponents only to appear to give up and defer to their talent in the 2nd half. How much of this is naive youth overestimating how demoralized our opponent is, and then coasting to the end; or how much is it just other teams coasting in the 1st half against the conference cellar, only to wake up and plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team? I've asked myself a similar question but I think the data proves that it probably isn't the latter (or at least not entirely)... If Cal just needed to wake up at halftime and expose us with their superior talent, why did they "let" us extend the lead in the 3rd quarter? Remember, that was only a 7-point game at halftime. OSU extended the lead to 17 in the third quarter. I would say OSU was not "exposed" in the 2nd half of that game. Utah was up 12-0 at halftime. As usual, the team that is behind is the one that makes adjustments -- OSU in this case. OSU outscored Utah 7-0 in the third quarter. Utah, if they were so superior, would not have left it a 5-point lead and given OSU a chance to win at the end.The WSU game is most like what you describe and there is little doubt in my mind that WSU players and coaches changed attitude and plans at halftime. There is also little doubt that a WSU team that came in 4-0 in conference, tied for the lead in the North, 14-point favorites, and in the 5th year of their current coach, probably is a significantly superior team to the current OSU Beaver team. The one argument I have against the idea that WSU then just "plowed to an easy victory" is that they didn't. I'm sure they didn't to have just a 4-point lead at the end with the Beavers having a chance to win on one play. Which means we gave up a 17 point lead in just over a qtr??? And, you do not think the weather kept that 12-0 lead from being 26-0??? They had a retired RB roll over us... score was not even indicative of their dominance on the line of scrimmage. Who knows the whys, and you can never say definitively why 18-22 y/o kids do what they do... but, I'm pretty sure we're not out coaching anyone, but maybe Dykes. |
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Post by Mike84 on Oct 31, 2016 22:54:04 GMT -8
Which means we gave up a 17 point lead in just over a qtr??? And, you do not think the weather kept that 12-0 lead from being 26-0??? They had a retired RB roll over us... score was not even indicative of their dominance on the line of scrimmage. Who knows the whys, and you can never say definitively why 18-22 y/o kids do what they do... but, I'm pretty sure we're not out coaching anyone, but maybe Dykes. The question asked in this thread was if we thought that the Beavers had gotten leads against Cal, Utah, and WSU only because the other team was coasting in the first half and then losing those leads when the other team woke up in the second half to "plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team". That's what I was giving my opinion on. I said if Cal woke up at halftime, they had an odd way of showing it by letting us outscore them in the third quarter to extend our lead. I did not say anything about the fourth quarter because then I would have had to point out that Cal did not "plow to an easy victory" over OSU. I said that OSU in fact did not get a lead on Utah in the first half, so that game didn't even really fit the question -- especially given that OSU outscored Utah 7-0 in the third to make it a 5-point game and prevent Utah from plowing to an easy victory. I did not say anything about the weather because then I would have had to point out that OSU probably would have had first half points too if not for the weather. I did not mention the "retired" running back because then I would have needed to mention that this same retired running back ran for 332 yards and 4 TDs against UCLA the following week, to give some context. I didn't say anything about who outcoached whom or how much worse or better it might have been if some other thing changed. I was just responding to the question with what I believe is evidence to show that perhaps Cal, Utah, and WSU were not necessarily capable of just plowing to an easy victory if only their heads had been in the game. That's all. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Oct 31, 2016 23:25:20 GMT -8
Which means we gave up a 17 point lead in just over a qtr??? And, you do not think the weather kept that 12-0 lead from being 26-0??? They had a retired RB roll over us... score was not even indicative of their dominance on the line of scrimmage. Who knows the whys, and you can never say definitively why 18-22 y/o kids do what they do... but, I'm pretty sure we're not out coaching anyone, but maybe Dykes. The question asked in this thread was if we thought that the Beavers had gotten leads against Cal, Utah, and WSU only because the other team was coasting in the first half and then losing those leads when the other team woke up in the second half to "plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team". That's what I was giving my opinion on. I said if Cal woke up at halftime, they had an odd way of showing it by letting us outscore them in the third quarter to extend our lead. I did not say anything about the fourth quarter because then I would have had to point out that Cal did not "plow to an easy victory" over OSU. I said that OSU in fact did not get a lead on Utah in the first half, so that game didn't even really fit the question -- especially given that OSU outscored Utah 7-0 in the third to make it a 5-point game and prevent Utah from plowing to an easy victory. I did not say anything about the weather because then I would have had to point out that OSU probably would have had first half points too if not for the weather. I did not mention the "retired" running back because then I would have needed to mention that this same retired running back ran for 332 yards and 4 TDs against UCLA the following week, to give some context. I didn't say anything about who outcoached whom or how much worse or better it might have been if some other thing changed. I was just responding to the question with what I believe is evidence to show that perhaps Cal, Utah, and WSU were not necessarily capable of just plowing to an easy victory if only their heads had been in the game. That's all. And my opinion indicates "waking up" includes coaching as well as players and does not have to begin exactly at the 2nd half kick. Hence, 2nd half collapses have a lot to do with out coaching/adjusting... and losing a 17 point lead in a qtr is indeed in that category as we were not playing poorly. Versus UCLA Williams was not coming out of "retirement". He had played a game, got his legs under him and was obviously ready to play vs coming off the street. And, as I stated evidence is non existent to what 18-22 y/o kids are or are not capable of... as evidenced in a 7 minute span of the WSU game and 21 quick points. We're young, we're bad, we're inconsistent... we're going to surprise some teams... we're going to let up... teams will wake up and smell the coffee... who's to say what "evidence" scores and leads show. It's a combo of everything... including bad luck, injuries/depth, and just having an off game. I stated who knows why. That's all. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Nov 1, 2016 0:09:48 GMT -8
I'm thinking the retirement thing has been a little over played. Didn't he have all of maybe three weeks off and the announcers in one game or another mentioned he had brought up he was tired of hurting all the time when he "retired". Three weeks off in mid-season to heal up is a different thing than coming cold off a longer term "retirement". I'd bet a lot of running backs would like to have that option.
To Wilky, thanks for explaining the odds thing earlier in the other thread, I've never been a sports better. I think I'll pass on the 3-1 odds, however if you decide to go 129-1 since you think the real odds of 6 regular season wins is 130-1 we can probably make a deal.
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Post by osulax24 on Nov 1, 2016 8:35:54 GMT -8
I thought I read the Utah RB "retired" due to the birth of his child? If true I'm sure he took a lot of pent up stress out on us being a new Pops and all!
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Post by beavers91 on Nov 1, 2016 9:38:56 GMT -8
A few weeks ago (Colorado, UW) it was getting blown out in the first half. Now we are coached up to go out and win the first half. Progress kemosabe Ahhhh those two teams have 1st class defenses... WSU not... Cal not even close. WSU's defense may not be in the same class as UW's, Colorado or Utah's, but under their new coordinator, they've gotten some good personnel (kid's we recruited as well) and are a solid defense, GA has said so himself. They are a good enough defense to keep them in the running for the North title. Even before an epic Apple Cup, the WSU vs. Colorado game is going to be a good one! |
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Post by Mike84 on Nov 1, 2016 10:03:20 GMT -8
And my opinion indicates "waking up" includes coaching as well as players and does not have to begin exactly at the 2nd half kick. Hence, 2nd half collapses have a lot to do with out coaching/adjusting... and losing a 17 point lead in a qtr is indeed in that category as we were not playing poorly. Versus UCLA Williams was not coming out of "retirement". He had played a game, got his legs under him and was obviously ready to play vs coming off the street. And, as I stated evidence is non existent to what 18-22 y/o kids are or are not capable of... as evidenced in a 7 minute span of the WSU game and 21 quick points. We're young, we're bad, we're inconsistent... we're going to surprise some teams... we're going to let up... teams will wake up and smell the coffee... who's to say what "evidence" scores and leads show. It's a combo of everything... including bad luck, injuries/depth, and just having an off game. I stated who knows why. That's all. The 4th quarter of the Cal game was notable not only for the fact that Cal was finally successfully running the ball but also for the fact that OSU was without Ryan Nall -- who was having a career day up to that point -- for basically that entire quarter and the overtime. That was part of the reason Cal caught up. And, ultimately, OSU "adjusted" to Cal and won the game. The reason Joe Williams retired was that "Every day, he was dealing with pain in his lower back, shins and knees. Those unwanted souvenirs from injuries in junior college and at Utah made every practice an exercise in pain tolerance." The 4 weeks off probably gave Joe Williams the opportunity to come back fresh, strong, and mostly pain free. AFTER the OSU game, he was probably feeling it. Preparing for UCLA, he was probably getting back to his old aches and pains. Then he goes out and goes 29 for 332 and 4 TDs against the Bruins. He went 34 for 179 and 1 TD against the Beavers. Against the vaunted UW defense (and coaches) he went 35 for 172 and 1 TD. I agree that we're young, inconsistent, occasionally bad, going to surprise some teams, going to let up at times, and that it's a combination of bad luck, injuries/depth, and just having an off game. |
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Post by nforkbeav on Nov 1, 2016 11:18:13 GMT -8
Depth/fatigue is one issue in the second half. As a coaching staff how do you minimize that effect? The old staff tried to chew time off the clock thereby shortening game producing less plays to defend and longer rest for the defense between outings when things went according to plan.
It seems this staff is trying another strategy which is to open the offense up full throttle in the first half, basically laying all their aces down trying to jump out to a big early lead and then hoping to hold on in the second half when there doesn't seem to be much if any offensive cards left to play.
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Post by atownbeaver on Nov 1, 2016 11:37:12 GMT -8
Which is it? Against Cal, Utah and WSU, three decent P5 teams, we've jumped out to early leads, and seemed to out-coach and out-hustle tough opponents only to appear to give up and defer to their talent in the 2nd half. How much of this is naive youth overestimating how demoralized our opponent is, and then coasting to the end; or how much is it just other teams coasting in the 1st half against the conference cellar, only to wake up and plow to an easy victory over an outmatched team? I'm really hoping it's the latter, not the former. Because that means we have the talent and ability and coaching to play complete games in the coming years. It means we're just LEARNING to win. If it's the latter, it means we'll probably not get the benefit of opponents looking past us in the years to come, and we'll not only lose games, but lose that first-half cushion (and consequently lose games like vs. Cal where the Bears simply ran out of time). Riley got the most out of inferior talent. I'm concerned that Riley is the only guy who could really do that in Corvallis. Its inexperience. Both players and coaches. It shows in adjustments (or lack of), it shows in situational awareness, it shows in situational play calling. Figure we have one coach on this team that has any kind of pac-12 experience, and power 5 conference experience is in pretty short supply as well. |
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