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Post by beavadelic on Nov 2, 2016 13:04:10 GMT -8
What are our chances this Saturday?
On paper, until they played against an awful 'zonal defense, they experienced the largest offensive production drop-off from last year of any P5 conference memory. The QB situation has been bad, the O-line uncharacteristically weak, and opponents have loaded up on McCaffrey (must be frustrating, similar to what Simonton experienced after the Fiesta season). They haven't been very good, but they do have #5, and our D seems have the worst time putting the same 11 on the field for more than one game. We wear down due to poor depth, and all Stanford has to do is play error-free because of their defense. Which brings us to....
That defense! The past decade or so, the Cardinal have been nasty on this side of the ball. This season, the loss of a couple of leaders to graduation, etc. and some untimely injuries have robbed them of a bit of their luster. However, the past 3 games they've held offenses that are better than ours to 10 points. They are so physical, make very few mental mistakes (go figure), and are fundamentally lights out. When they are in a position to tackle, you go down. Their best DB will be on the field, after missing significant action this year due to injuries. Given the fact that the Catsinal don't give up big plays much, and it's so hard for anyone - especially our Beavs - to sustain long drives against them, it could be tough to score in double digits.
While it's true that Stanford can be had this year, they are extremely well coached and are still playing for something. It's tough for our kids to close games at home, let alone to break through on the road. My buddies and I traveled to the farm 4 years ago when beating them could have set us up for a Rose Bowl shot and we led until the last couple of minutes. That stadium is not a hostile place comparatively, but as we're learning what it takes to win games that we're capable of winning, it will be a tall order, IMO, on Saturday.
We absolutely COULD win this thing. If Nall can stay healthy I feel like we can run a little bit on this year's 'furd D. Along with that, Marcus needs to make good decisions and take care of the ball, and we can't afford to have drops of catchable balls. I believe that we'll need 14-17 points to win.
Defensively, we have to play disciplined. Since our pass rush is so weak, Chryst will have some time to survey things downfield. I have appreciated the few wrinkles (corner blitzes, sending more LBs more frequently) that Clune has come with in the past couple games. It will hurt to not have Bright in the first half, because actually been a rare bright (pun coincidental) spot for us, particularly the past 3-4 weeks.
I honestly feel like the D is starting to get settled. If not for so many annoying injuries, we might even be fairly decent overall. Our lack of depth makes it tough, but we are capable of holding the Cardinal offense to 1 or 2 TDs. We simply cannot allow McCaffrey to get going, or allow the QB to find a rythm.
My heart wants to say 17-14 Beavs. My head tells me that this is going to be a really ugly, tough one. My gut says that it's too much to expect this young and thin group to go down there and pull off the win. I am encouraged to honestly believe that we have a shot, and there is a reason that they play the games.
Go Beavs....go get it done!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2016 14:25:47 GMT -8
Henry Anderson and David Parry to the Colts in the draft two years ago took some playmaking out of that D-line. But as a Colt fan....they have been a nice addition.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 2, 2016 14:29:58 GMT -8
What are our chances this Saturday? On paper, until they played against an awful 'zonal defense, they experienced the largest offensive production drop-off from last year of any P5 conference memory. The QB situation has been bad, the O-line uncharacteristically weak, and opponents have loaded up on McCaffrey (must be frustrating, similar to what Simonton experienced after the Fiesta season). They haven't been very good, but they do have #5, and our D seems have the worst time putting the same 11 on the field for more than one game. We wear down due to poor depth, and all Stanford has to do is play error-free because of their defense. Which brings us to.... That defense! The past decade or so, the Cardinal have been nasty on this side of the ball. This season, the loss of a couple of leaders to graduation, etc. and some untimely injuries have robbed them of a bit of their luster. However, the past 3 games they've held offenses that are better than ours to 10 points. They are so physical, make very few mental mistakes (go figure), and are fundamentally lights out. When they are in a position to tackle, you go down. Their best DB will be on the field, after missing significant action this year due to injuries. Given the fact that the Catsinal don't give up big plays much, and it's so hard for anyone - especially our Beavs - to sustain long drives against them, it could be tough to score in double digits. While it's true that Stanford can be had this year, they are extremely well coached and are still playing for something. It's tough for our kids to close games at home, let alone to break through on the road. My buddies and I traveled to the farm 4 years ago when beating them could have set us up for a Rose Bowl shot and we led until the last couple of minutes. That stadium is not a hostile place comparatively, but as we're learning what it takes to win games that we're capable of winning, it will be a tall order, IMO, on Saturday. We absolutely COULD win this thing. If Nall can stay healthy I feel like we can run a little bit on this year's 'furd D. Along with that, Marcus needs to make good decisions and take care of the ball, and we can't afford to have drops of catchable balls. I believe that we'll need 14-17 points to win. Defensively, we have to play disciplined. Since our pass rush is so weak, Chryst will have some time to survey things downfield. I have appreciated the few wrinkles (corner blitzes, sending more LBs more frequently) that Clune has come with in the past couple games. It will hurt to not have Bright in the first half, because actually been a rare bright (pun coincidental) spot for us, particularly the past 3-4 weeks. I honestly feel like the D is starting to get settled. If not for so many annoying injuries, we might even be fairly decent overall. Our lack of depth makes it tough, but we are capable of holding the Cardinal offense to 1 or 2 TDs. We simply cannot allow McCaffrey to get going, or allow the QB to find a rythm. My heart wants to say 17-14 Beavs. My head tells me that this is going to be a really ugly, tough one. My gut says that it's too much to expect this young and thin group to go down there and pull off the win. I am encouraged to honestly believe that we have a shot, and there is a reason that they play the games. Go Beavs....go get it done! Oregon State's strength is in its pass defense. The Beavers' front 7 is weak, and Ugwoegbu is out the first half. Stanford should have a field day on the ground. If Oregon State can weather the first half without getting gashed too bad on the ground, the Beavers have an excellent opportunity to win in the second half, but several things are going to need to go right in the first half to make that happen. Offensively, our strength is Stanford's strength. They know how to shut down a running team. The only two teams that have had success against Stanford's defense are the Washingtons. Browning finished 15/21 for 210 yards, three touchdowns and an additional eight yards on the ground. No sacks. Luke Falk finished 30/41 for 357 yards and four touchdowns. Two interceptions and two sacks. On the first, Stanford drove three yards and missed a 50-yard field goal. The second was returned for a touchdown. Nine points otherwise against Washington State. Same team that Oregon State put 31 points on. Oregon State did better against the two Washingtons, but Stanford did better against Colorado defensively. Shaw is a smart coach. He figured out Oregon State's defense last year and then every team just did the same thing to Oregon State over and over again after that. Hopefully, Oregon State can keep him off-balance this year. Oregon State can beat Stanford, but they will need to play perfect football and probably get lucky on top of it. I see Stanford winning by at least two scores. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Nov 2, 2016 14:43:13 GMT -8
Thank you.
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Post by lebaneaver on Nov 2, 2016 15:07:30 GMT -8
Although 'furd's "home field advantage" isn't that advantageous, it is something, and our youngsters ARE the visitors....It will be no shame to lose by a couple scores, though...I see it being a little closer. I, too worry about their running rough-shod all over our "D" early, and IF MM gets rattled early our offense could be truly offensive. What I'm hoping for is a competitive match-up without any injuries to our BEAVS. We can't afford anymore of those. Here's hoping the "Wrecking Nall" finds some room....and often. Go Beavs!
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Post by spudbeaver on Nov 2, 2016 15:08:23 GMT -8
Oregon State can beat Stanford, but they will need to play perfect football and probably get lucky on top of it. I see Stanford winning by at least two scores. I'll take the other side of that. I'll also take the over, since it's an SEC like 42. Even though they only allowed 30 in their last 3, that back to back 86 points in the 2 games prior makes me wonder. Did Colorado have an off day is the big outlier. I kind of smell a Beaver victory. On another topic, what's Dewayne Williams status now? |
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Post by gobeavs92 on Nov 2, 2016 15:27:03 GMT -8
There are a hell of a lot of "ifs"! From Nall's health/status to McMaryion being able to consistently complete passes downfield (more than 3 or so) to Xavier Crawford playing (the D Chart shows K White and/or Shawn Wilson as the next tow up-scary!), can the Beavs match the physicality of Stanford in the trenches (both sides of the ball), win the turnover battle???
Yes it is a "down year" for Stanford but they are still a pretty talented football team. I guess we'll see how much this Beaver team has grown after they went toe to toe with (and gave away the game) to WSU?
I'm hoping we can do it but also realizing it's a tall order.
Go Beavs!
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BeaverNut23
Freshman
WOOOOOO Feels dam Good to beat those Hogs! GO BEAVSSS!!
Posts: 553 
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Post by BeaverNut23 on Nov 2, 2016 15:52:43 GMT -8
Like utah...stanford does scare me aswell becuase of how flipping physical they are! I hope the beavs dont lose to many players to standford. Playing at Stanford is as hard to win there for us like playing down south and the yucks.. Maybe.. we can learn how WSU put the beat down on Stanford? could the air-raid be the true weakness of stanford?
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Post by ElBeavoLoco on Nov 2, 2016 17:25:05 GMT -8
Stanford?
Lolz
Those fools 'bout to get smacked by the WRECKING NALL!!!!!!
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Post by baseba1111 on Nov 2, 2016 18:11:54 GMT -8
We averaged under 3 yds/tote taking away one play... versus a WSU defense.
Unless or OL shows up we'll be in big trouble. We can't have them beat us up with their ground game and go 3 and out.
Stanford will think their front can handle us. They will focus on the back out/ circle route as their LBs are their weak spot.
Without a TE in our passing game we need to use formations to get backs and or slots on backers. And a copy cat of the WSU back out middle read vs our LB would be a great addition along with more quick shallow crossing routes. Also need to eliminate any bubble screens... our WR can not block a soul let alone Stanford's DBs. But, innovation really has not been our strength.
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Post by osulax24 on Nov 2, 2016 21:53:05 GMT -8
There are a hell of a lot of "ifs"! From Nall's health/status to McMaryion being able to consistently complete passes downfield (more than 3 or so) to Xavier Crawford playing (the D Chart shows K White and/or Shawn Wilson as the next tow up-scary!), can the Beavs match the physicality of Stanford in the trenches (both sides of the ball), win the turnover battle??? Yes it is a "down year" for Stanford but they are still a pretty talented football team. I guess we'll see how much this Beaver team has grown after they went toe to toe with (and gave away the game) to WSU? I'm hoping we can do it but also realizing it's a tall order. Go Beavs! Why are you always bagging on MM? Check stats, best game of the year by a Beaver QB against a real team. Blame the play calling and dropped passes, not the kid who is actually moving the offense. |
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Post by beavsaregood on Nov 3, 2016 3:26:20 GMT -8
Just looking at the furd, their QB, Keller Chryst, is still learning. I think their OL is either young and/or not as good versus prior years. Chryst will get better. But, their pass offense right now is very not good just like the Beavs. As always, they'll run the ball a lot.
As said earlier, the Stanford D is disciplined. With the OLs the Beavs have, we're going to have to pass the ball. Even if the Stanford D has dropped off a bit, I bet they'll stack the box and force the Beavs to pass. See if Nall can break a few off, but, I'm thinking the Beavs will need to pass.
Might be a close game.
Go Beavs.
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Post by gobeavs92 on Nov 3, 2016 5:04:30 GMT -8
There are a hell of a lot of "ifs"! From Nall's health/status to McMaryion being able to consistently complete passes downfield (more than 3 or so) to Xavier Crawford playing (the D Chart shows K White and/or Shawn Wilson as the next tow up-scary!), can the Beavs match the physicality of Stanford in the trenches (both sides of the ball), win the turnover battle??? Yes it is a "down year" for Stanford but they are still a pretty talented football team. I guess we'll see how much this Beaver team has grown after they went toe to toe with (and gave away the game) to WSU? I'm hoping we can do it but also realizing it's a tall order. Go Beavs! Why are you always bagging on MM? Check stats, best game of the year by a Beaver QB against a real team. Blame the play calling and dropped passes, not the kid who is actually moving the offense. Not "bagging" on anyone! Saying what he needs to be able to do. He has not been able to consistently throw the ball downfield (none of the QBs have) but he or whoever will be starting this weekend will have to be able to do this in order to win. I don't "blame" anybody and btw Ryan Nall is moving the offense more than anyone on the team. Blaming the play calling is a cop out! In case you haven't noticed, they are putting McMaryion in position for success by keeping the passes short and quick. Worrying about stats like yards is pointless. Points win games. Why are you so worried about my opinion? You and most of the board know more than me or anybody else (including the coaching staff) so..... Take it easy there lil' buddy! Go Beavs! |
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Post by osulax24 on Nov 3, 2016 9:21:05 GMT -8
60% completion, 327 yards, 2 TD's and zero turnovers. That's considered "moving the ball" IMO. Quite a few drops in there as well. It was the play calling that cost the game, who continues to throw and stop the clock when we were having success running?
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Post by beaverbeliever on Nov 3, 2016 9:47:54 GMT -8
Sorry, but we were not having success running in the second half.
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